Deal Or No Deal?

Obama's 30-minute ad won't delay the World Series, as McCain's camp has charged. But will it help him seal the deal? Or is it a risky, expensive overreach that helps GOPers make the case that he's measuring the drapes? And as Giuliani reminds us, the ad is a stark reminder of Obama's decision to reject public financing.

-- The NYT says the video, "heavy in strings, flags, presidential imagery and some Americana," will feature Obama frequently speaking directly to camera. At other times, he'll highlight "everyday voters, their everyday troubles, and his plans to address them." It's a far cry from Invesco. But that gamble paid off because it reinforced his mass appeal. What sort of appeal will we see tonight?

-- One upside for Obama, he'll apparently draw little backlash from baseball fans; The Phillies vs. Rays drew the worst Game 5 rating in history for the 10/27 game. So far, ratings are down 20% from the record low in '06.

-- When just 17% of voters in a Pew poll think McCain will win, Obama has to do something that looks beyond 11/4. And finally, this word of advice: wherever Obama is staged during the ad, there best not be drapes in the background. If there are, he'd best not be measuring them.