Lake Wobe-gone

CLEVELAND - If you want to understand the challenge Obama has in winning over OH, just listen to 12 Lake Co. voters, most of whom voted for Pres. Bush in '04. Lake Co. has long been a bellwether (Bush won it by 5K votes in '00, just 3K in '04), which is why the Annenberg Public Policy Center conducted its final focus group here on a Sunday afternoon.

-- To be sure, these voters aren't an optimistic bunch. They described Bush as a "disappointment" and "ineffectual." Even so, when moderator Peter Hart asked them to describe how they'd feel if they learned Obama had won, most used the term "nervous" or "uncertain." At least 2 ex-Bush voters said they were leaning to Obama. But an HRC backer and 40-year Dem voter said she was leaning to McCain. Social issues like abortion are keeping at least 3 of these Rs in McCain's camp.

-- And so we come full circle to Obama's premise from the beginning. He wins if he can expand the map beyond these trad'l battleground voting blocs. He doesn't need these Lake Co. voters to back him as long as he can turn out his base in VA and CO or NC.

-- More daunting, however, is the post-election map. Bringing people together other the banner of "change" is easy compared to keeping them together once that change gets implemented.