Crunched By Numbers

Numbers don't lie. Well, unless they do. Even so, a quick look at the latest numbers shows some harrowing problems for the GOPers up and down the ballot and raise some questions about young voter enthusiasm:

--Battleground Blowout?: New polls show '04 red states NV, FL, NC, OH, VA and IN going Obama's way. One tiny sliver of good news for McCain: WV maintains its reddish hue.

--Triage Time: The NRCC's abandoning Musgrave (CO) Bachmann (MN) and Feeney (FL), while jumping in to try to save Souder (IN), Drake (VA) and Terry (NE). In CO, the NRSC may be staying in, but the DSCC says they're moving out. So where should the DSCC put their extra cash? Do they save it up for offense in AK, KY, and/or GA or play defense in LA? Meanwhile, McCain/Palin may be stumping in CO, but they've cut their ad buys there in half.

--Young & The Restless: Folks under 30 made up almost half of the new registrants in FL and NC, but early vote stats show they aren't turning out at the same rate. In FL, 26% of new voters were under 30; in NC it was 36%. Of course, it's still VERY early and young voters theoretically have more time to hang out in line on 11/4 than those w/ kids and jobs. Even so, be careful of making too much out of early vote stats. We won't know enough about turn-out until, well, everyone gets a chance to turn out.