Michigan Impossible

Insta-polls showed Biden "won" last p.m., but Palin passed her own test. Just as important, her folksy performance gives GOP folks a needed boost. She's already back up on the media horse, sitting down w/FNC's Cameron today.

-- So if the debate wasn't a game-changer, will McCain's MI decision be? You betcha. To be sure, the state was never going to be an easy one for him. And concentrating on PA and WI - which have smaller (to almost non-existent) black populations and lots of cross-pressured conservative Dems, would seem to be a better investment.

-- Same goes for ME. Although the state's never split its EVs, demographics have been destiny this cycle and ME-02 would seem to fit perfectly into McCain's target group of voters; rural, older and white. Even so McCain is significantly unperforming Pres. Bush's '04 showing among white men (17 pts) and white women (7 pts).

-- Given that all 3 states are also feeling the economic pinch, will cultural concerns still hold sway? Here's one clue: even as McCain is down 6 pts among all voters in the latest Diageo/Hotline poll, among those who attend church regularly, McCain has a big lead.