All Keyed Up

As Obama and McCain try to manage the debate about the economy, change and lipstick, the Diageo/Hotline tracking poll is measuring its impact on voters. The result: "Keys To The WH" - Hotline's weekly look at the groups we think will decide the WH '08 winner. Some highlights from the latest survey:

-- McCain Mavericks: McCain's "change" message targets voters who disapprove of Pres. Bush but are still willing to vote for a GOPer. Right now, he's getting 22% of Bush disapprovers - a serious improvement from previous noms trying to replace a termed-out Pres. In '88, Bush '41' got 11% of Reagan disapprovers; in '00 Gore got just 9% of Clinton's.

-- Suburban Sprawlers: Obama's expanded EC map relies on busting into previously GOP-held territory. A prime target: exurbs in places like CO, VA and OH, which are heavily populated by college-educated indies. Right now, Obama's running slightly ahead w/this group: 41% to 38%.

-- The Women: The most striking gap in '08 isn't between men and women, it's between college-educated and non-college educated white women. Those w/a degree tilt toward Obama - those w/out one are going heavily for McCain. Can Palin help McCain widen (or tighten) these gaps?