Shrinkage Factor

On this solemn day, the back-and-forth over lipstick, wolves and kiddie sex-ed stops ... temporarily. But when the campaign returns 9/12 is there any chance we'll be talking about something else? Probably not. But will these last 2 weeks define the next 13? Or will they simply be remembered as temporary tactical victories for McCain?

-- At the very least, the McCain camp has driven fear into the hearts of Dems. Not helping them feel any better: Biden's clumsy remarks re: HRC.

-- New state polls (remember this is where the Obama camp wants us all to focus) are a mixed bag. McCain has leads in MO, VA, and FL, 3 of Obama's 18 "battleground states." If these 51 EVs ultimately go to McCain, does it really matter how well Obama's doing in ND?

-- The good news for Obama: He's still ahead in OH, PA and MI. Interesting side note: McCain's steadily gaining vote share in PA (5 pts. in Q poll btwn 6/08 and 9/08), while his movement in OH is smaller (2 pts. from 6/08 to 9/08). Even so, he has yet to break out of the mid-low 40's in either state.

-- In the end, a playing field once considered to be ever-expanding looks like it's shrinking back into place.