Black And Gold, Or Blue?

If you were to determine the winner of tomorrow's GOP primary in FL-16 based on who enjoys more establishment support, Steelers heir Tom Rooney (R) would win in a walk. Unfortunately for him, things are a bit more complicated.

-- Although Rooney appears to be the clear choice of the DC and FL establishment, conservative grassroots orgs have spread their support among all three candidates. In a late-Aug primary, where grassroots support is crucial in turning out the vote, no candidate appears to be the darling of that group. Does that give the edge to Rooney, with his overwhelming FL GOP party support?

-- But that support goes both ways. While Rooney is the only candidate who can't be labeled an insider (he's never held office), the endorsement by FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and several other FL electeds make him the candidate of the establishment. That's not exactly the best label to hold this year.

-- Whoever is elected 8/26 will face the daunting challenge to rebuild their warchests and redirect their aim at Tim Mahoney (D), who has avoided many of the same GOP arrows that hit him earlier in the cycle. With each candidate claiming some piece of the social conservative pie, will all the elements come together to help the eventual GOP nominee?