Breakout!

Another day, another poll that shows a tightening WH race. Given the pounding Obama's been getting from McCain, this shouldn't come as a surprise. But are we seeing any real movement or just some reshuffling on the margins?

-- Most point to the celebrity ads as effective. Even so, the LAT/Bloomberg poll shows that almost as many voters think Obama is "arrogant" and "presumptuous" as think McCain is "hot tempered." The most troubling thing for Obama: the huge advantage McCain holds on the question of having the "right experience." Just 44% say Obama's got it - 80% think McCain does. Of course H. Clinton had a huge advantage on this too. How does McCain exploit it in a way she wasn't able to?

-- But can either candidate really expect to "seal the deal" anytime soon? Given that McCain's expected to make his VP pick the day after the lights go dim at Invesco, don't expect to see an Obama bounce post-DNC. The most important - and revealing - polls will be those taken after the candidates first debate on 9/26.

-- Given that voters have been lectured for months by the candidates and pundits about the gravity of this "historic election," is it any wonder that they're in no hurry to make up their mind?