All Shook Up

'06 nom Nikki Tinker's (D) latest TV ads have been roundly criticized in the press and in Dem circles. But what do these ads tell us about her chances in today's contest against Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN 09)?

-- The ads may give us a peek at what Tinker sees in her polling (Cohen's earlier polling showed him with a significant lead). Why would she go so negative if she wasn't trailing and needed to gin up support in this 60% African-Amercian CD?

-- But will they work? It's very hard to say, but one complication is TN's early voting program. Voters had until 8/2 to vote early, and nearly 33K in Shelby Co. headed to the polls before Tinker's first incendiary ad was aired. That 33K represents almost half of the total voters in the '06 primary, a 15-person race that also generated lots of interest. So, these ads aired after a very large portion of voters had already made their choice.

-- Early voting may have saved businessman Mike Erickson (R) earlier this year in OR-05, as a scandal engulfed him only after a very large percentage of voters had cast their ballots. Will it be a factor in this very nasty race?