Claiming The Mo' Town?

If '06 was a barometer for '08, then ex-Rep. Jim Ryun (R) and Carolyn Cheeks Kilpatrick (D-MI 13) face big obstacles to victory -- both tomorrow, and this fall.

-- In MI-13, Kilpatrick has been tangled up in her son's ethical problems. Scandals finished many GOP incumbents in '06, and recent polls show Kilpatrick may also fall into that trap. But what may save Kilpatrick is the fact that two relatively strong candidates with pretty high name ID could split the vote. Ex-state Rep. Mary Waters (D) may have the best chance of beating Kilpatrick, but state Sen. Martha Scott (D) is polling in the mid-20s. If that holds, Kilpatrick should win.

-- Ryun has a different hurdle to clear in KS-02. He must convince voters in a change year to send him back to DC, after they fired him in '06. Treas. Lynn Jenkins's (R) ads have picked up on this and have featured her as a CPA, rather than someone who's had a long career in politics. Ryun has run a good race and is the frontrunner. But Jenkins has a shot if her "change" message reverberates.

-- The issues have changed since '06, but the enviro hasn't. Can Kilpatrick and Ryun reverse that pattern?