Lucky Brand Jean?

A new poll has both comforting and disturbing news for OH-02 '06 nominee Victoria Wulsin (D). Her survey claims she's within single digits of Jean Schmidt (R), but she's still at 33%. That's not an encouraging start for someone who came within 2.5K votes of winning in '06.

-- Wulsin's relatively weak position means this contest may be one of the few that won't solely be a referendum on the incumbent. And Dems must sense this. On a DCCC "Red to Blue" list that seems to include every Dem with any remote chance of winning, Wulsin's absence is deafening. And EMILY's List has not endorsed Wulsin, either. She's a natural fit for both, but is conspicuously absent, so far, in both orgs' plans.

-- But this lack of DC enthusiasm for Wulsin hasn't translated into mo' for Schmidt, either. Sure, Schmidt has disappeared from the news, and considering her penchant for making gaffes, that's a good thing. But she still seems to have difficulties with GOPers, and that's a problem she's had from the beginning. In a CD this safe for GOPers, she only needs her party to win. And she still hasn't solved that problem.

-- Schmidt will never be totally safe, but so far, Dems' trepidation here means she's the early favorite. But considering Schmidt's past, don't put too much money on that position.