Provo Us Wrong

Everything about this cycle screams "change." From dismal Cong. approval polls to candidates echoing the "DC is broken" line, all signs point to problems for incumbents. So why hasn't that phenomenon translated to primaries so far this cycle?

-- If there is change in the air, it should be hovering over today's matchup in UT-03. Chris Cannon (R) has survived many GOP challenges, but Jason Chaffetz (R) appears to have a very good grass-roots org, as evidenced by his strong convo showing. And while Cannon has an overwhelming CoH advantage, that hasn't translated into a barrage of TV ads. So, with all things being equal, a change candidate beats a vulnerable incumbent in this enviro, right?

-- But this year, in order for "change" to win, it needs money and strong grass-roots support. Wayne Gilchrest (R-MD 01) and Al Wynn (D-MD 04) fell because their opponents raised an avg of $900K for those races, and had big union or Club support. Bids against Dan Lipinski (D-IL 03), Dennis Kucinich (D-OH 10), Walter Jones (R-NC 03), Leonard Boswell (D-IA 03) and others failed because they lacked one or both of those weapons.

-- Will that hold true tonight? If so, Chaffetz doesn't stand much of a chance. But with polls showing Cannon holding well under 50%, Cannon may well become the next Gilchrest or Wynn.