Early Birds Gets The Worm?

Two polls in two days show why Robin Hayes (R-NC 08) and Paul Kanjorski (D-PA 11) are anxious to get on the air and define themselves, and their opposition.

-- While they both face well-known challengers, each is taking a different strategy in his ads. Kanjorski is up today with a bio spot, which is odd for a 24-year incumbent, but it shows how long it's been since he's had to run a real race. Hayes, however, jumped out of the gate last week with a negative ad. With several tough races under his belt, voters know who he is, and he feels as though he's got to knock '06 nominee Larry Kissell (D) down a peg.

-- But like Kanjorski, Hayes is also facing a force he can't control: the WH contest. Kissell's poll shows Barack Obama with a 13% lead in NC-08. That goes two ways for Hayes. In a CD that gave Pres. Bush 54% in '04, that kind of Dem wave certainly will give Kissell the ummph he needs to overcome Hayes' slender, 329-vote hold. One small silver lining for Hayes: if this CD has really swung 21% on the WH ballot, a 2% deficit ain't that bad.

-- Sam Graves (R-MO 06), Phil English (R-PA 03), Kanjorski and Hayes have all gone on the air early this cycle. And it appears, at least for two of them, that it was absolutely essential.