Beating The Kanjo?

A poll released 6/16 by Hazleton Mayor Lou Barletta (R) shows him leading Paul Kanjorski (D-PA 11), which is quite surprising given the current enviro. Can it hold?

-- The 3-month-old survey was conducted between incidents that cast Kanjorski in a negative light. Clearly, he's still shaking off the rust that comes from running only 1 real race in 24 years. But if media reports are accurate, the Dem is about to kick off his campaign in a big way, with early TV ads. While it's a sign he won't be caught napping, it also confirms he knows he's in trouble.

-- Don't dismiss the polling here just because '08 is shaping up to be a great Dem year. A "change" enviro isn't the most-friendly to a 24-year incumbent, even if he's got a "D" next to his name. And GOPers are hoping Barack Obama's weakness in the PA primary will translate to 11/08. Barletta's survey showed John McCain leading 48-35% in the CD. If McCain can hold that lead come Nov., Barletta has a great shot.

-- In a bizarre way, Kanjorski seems to be suffering from the same circumstances that are lifting up Dems elsewhere. Is Obama the drag on Kanjorski? Is it Barletta? Or is it Kanjorski himself? Looks like a mixture of the three, and that's a potentially deadly combo.