What Color Is Change?

Obama kicks off his new “Change" tour in reliably red NC while the McCain camp is targeting traditionally blue NH and NJ. Is the electoral map really this open? Or is this just some early-summer wishful thinking?

-- First, state polls are uber-dubious guides at this point. Most were taken weeks ago when Obama/HRC dominated the landscape. Once McCain and Obama start to seriously engage, polling should become a more reliable guidepost.

-- Then there’s the question of whether personal appeal can trump the environment. McCain has a reservoir of goodwill in NH. But in ’06, Granite Staters tossed out another moderate w/deep family ties in the state - Charlie Bass (R). And Kean Jr.’s defeat in NJ SEN two years ago suggests the “moderate” label only gets you only so far in the Garden State.

-- In NC, black-voter turnout will be a huge factor. Also, can NC Dems Kay Hagan and Bev Perdue help Obama w/women? Or is a Dem ticket w/no white male prominently featured a liability?

-- It’s too early to color in the EC map. But it’s worth asking just how many non-shaded states deserve to be there.