It's A Duck?

Mike Erickson's (R) victory in OR-05 last p.m. is certainly a stunner. The final week saw him fighting charges that would kill many campaigns, and for him to emerge victorious is a minor miracle, owed at least partially to OR's mail-in ballot process.

-- But it doesn't mean he's out of the woods. He limps into the general without support from a key part of his social conservative base -- OR Right to Life -- and it appears his vanquished opponent, Kevin Mannix, won't endorse him. And on top of that, he never really answered the charges clearly, and they'll linger as a cloud over his race against moderate state Sen. Kurt Schrader (D).

-- The one positive that came out of last p.m.'s results was that this is now the second primary (PA-10 is the other) where abortion has played a key role in the closing days of the campaign. CORRECTION: And in both those cases, the candidate who was the focus of the attacks prevailed. Is this a sign that GOP voters care just slightly less about the issue than they have in the recent past? If so, that'll aid nat'l GOP efforts to move the agenda off social issues. NOTE: PA-10 businessman Chris Hackett's (R) camp noted that Hackett wasn't attacked by pro-life groups, just by allies of his GOP opponent. Pro-life groups defended Hackett from the charges, and he's since been endorsed by Nat'l Right to Life.

-- But right now, that's small consolation in this race. GOPers had hoped to make OR-05 a prime pickup opportunity, but Erickson begins the general as the underdog. In years like this, the GOP needs everything to go right in order to pick up a seat. So far, that's not the case here.