Ore-Gone?

It must not be easy for the GOP to watch one of its two open seat pickup opportunities disintegrate, but that certainly could be happening in OR-05.

-- Polling confirms that the abortion allegations leveled against Mike Erickson (R) and perpetuated by Kevin Mannix (R) have swung this race around. Mannix now leads and has the mo', and if that holds the GOP will have lost its self-funder.

-- But either way, the winner will be tarred. If Erickson wins, he'll go into the general without much of his base (social conservatives). Mannix has already earned the reputation as a negative campaigner during his last several races, so this will fit right into that characterization. In a "change" year, that's not the best image to have.

-- But complicating the issue for the GOP is the mail-in ballot process. Had these revelations hit earlier, Mannix would've received the full benefit. But news of the allegations hit 5/13 and, if '04 and '06 are models, by that time nearly 40% of the ballots in the race had already been cast. Late deciders truly will decide this race.

-- Either way, GOPers will get a hobbled nominee in a CD that once held so much promise. It's still a long way to 11/08, but GOPers may just have found another way to blow a good opportunity. That theme sounds familiar.