Double Trouble

Overnight, predictions of Dem '08 House gains have almost universally doubled, going from the high single-digits to nearly 20, or more. Did MS-01 really alter the landscape of this election that much?

-- Fundamentally, no. The enviro has been bad for GOPers since the start of the cycle, and things just didn't magically get worse after 5/13. But what did happen is that analysts are no longer giving GOP incumbents the benefit of the doubt in several swing/endangered seats. If the GOP message isn't working in the Deep South, how can it work in more northern and suburban CDs represented by Dave Reichert (R-WA 08), Mark Kirk (R-IL 10) and Chris Shays (R-CT 04)?

-- And if tough, battle-tested Reps. are in trouble, how can the GOP retain many open seats? These 20+ seat forecasts see GOPers losing the 10 or so open seats most in danger, and several of the fringe races, like in LA-04, MO-09 and NY-26.

-- And in wave elections, a disproportionate number of losses come from one side. No Dem incumbent lost in '06, and no GOPer was defeated in '94. If '08 is to be a wave, then many Dems, including some vulnerables in PA-10, KS-02 and NH-01, will be returning in '09.

-- Often, surprise special election results cause overreaction. But with MS-01 changing the CW overnight, many are betting that the '06 wave has yet to crest.