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Tue. May 6, 2008National Journal's Daily Briefing on Politics
Spotlight
Hit Repeat
The latest polls and spin suggest another "groundhog day" primary. This leaves TV talkers scouring the exit polls and county vote tallies, looking for any signs that one candidate has breached the other's base. Will Obama make inroads in working-class Muncie or Evansville? Can HRC bump up her numbers among black voters in economically struggling eastern IN? And, what does a big turn-out in Raleigh/Durham mean?
--The other number we'll be watching: the total number of votes cast. Exit polls are nice, but Clinton's strategy requires her to keep the pop.-vote lead. Unless Obama rolls up the score big time in NC and she wins narrowly in IN, it's likely she'll keep it (w/Flor-igan included, of course).
-- For superdels and others looking for easy explanations for voting behavior, don't bet on it. What if Obama does no better (or worse) among white, working-class voters in NC than he did in GA and AL on 2/5? Does it mean that events over the last 2 months have soured voters potentially open to supporting Obama? Or, had their decision already been set long before gas taxes, bitterness and preachers?
Quote of the Day
"For the simple reason that the nominees were qualified, and it would have been petty, and partisan, and disingenuous to insist otherwise."
— John McCain, on why he voted to confirm Stephen Breyer and Ruth Bader Ginsburg, mult., 5/6
Top News
Bellwether Alert
Results in Kokomo and turn-out in Research Triangle could tell us who wins … and/or by how much.
Wake Me Up On Judgment Day
McCain lays out his judicial philosophy in NC; Lots of talk about Roberts. Scalia, not so much.
BE A-G-G-R-E-S-S-I-V-E
HRC keeps up Obama attacks in new TV ads, while also going after OPEC. Who's next?
Going Out On A Limb
Rep. Shuler says his superdel vote will go to the winner of his western NC CD. Hint: it's not likely to be Obama.
Columbus-ted
Embattled OH AG Dann (D) rebuffs calls by Gov. Strickland (D) to resign; impeachment hearings may be next.
Contents Tue. May 6, 2008
Today's Frontpage
- THE FIELD: Midnight Oil
- FLOR-IGAN: The Backroom Back-And-Forth
- SUPERDELEGATES: Reiding The Tea Leaves
- CLINTON: The Holidays Can Be Stressful
- OBAMA: New And Possibly Improved
White House 2008 -- The Democrats
- THE FIELD: We Are The Youth Of The Nation
- OKLAHOMA (2/5 PRIMARY): They Tried To Wait Around For The Open Bar
- MAINE (2/3 GOP CAUCUSES, 2/10 DEM CAUCUSES): We Saw What You Did In Nevada ...
- GALLUP: Five Guy
- IPSOS: The Blue Suburban
- NORTH CAROL-IN-DIANA (5/6 PRIMARY): Mmmmmm, Stakes
- INDIANA POLL (5/6 PRIMARY): Bayhwatch
- INDIANA (5/6 PRIMARY): It's Like a Hoosier Holiday
- NORTH CAROLINA POLL (5/6 PRIMARY): The Mad Hatteras
- NORTH CAROLINA (5/6 PRIMARY): Tar-Heels And Blue Devils Unite
- WEST VIRGINIA (5/13 PRIMARY): Reitz Of Passage
- KENTUCKY (5/20 primary): Like Water Under Troubled Bridges
- MONTANA (6/3 PRIMARY): Listen Up, Eager Beavers
- GALLUP: Field Chase
- IPSOS: DEMolition Man
- FLORIDA (27 EVS): Going To Give It The Old College Try?
- 2008 SCHEDULES: Hungry Like The Wolf
White House 2008 -- Other Updates
- DELAWARE: Christine, Christine, Don't Think That I Don't Care
- IDAHO: Hey, It Leaves More Time For The Other Seven
- KENTUCKY: Fighting Too Much Will Get You Black And Bruce-d
- MAINE: Who Knew She Could Be So Feisty?
- NEW JERSEY: That "Contemptuous" Whipper Snapper
- SOUTH CAROLINA: You Have To Pick The Right Buddies
- VIRGINIA: Warner Redux?
Senate 2008
??? Overlooked ???
If Only Hillary Had A Time Machine
With just 9 House seats (compared to NC's 13), IN is the smaller prize on today's electoral menu. The last time IN had more House seats than NC was back in the early '40s, when IN had 12 to NC's 11.