Baton Rouge Blues

Obama survived one critical test this weekend. No, not the Russert interview. The LA-06 special, a closely watched election where GOPers poured tons of money on ads trying to link conservative Dem Cazayoux to Obama in an attempt to nationalize the race. It didn't work out as planned.

To be sure, GOPer Jenkins was a flawed candidate, making this an imperfect test of Obama's down-ballot strength. The 5/13 special in MS-01l, which features a stronger GOPer, will be a better indicator. Even so, if Obama can't be used effectively as a wedge: 1) when he's at his weakest and 2) in a CD carried by Bush w/ 59%, what does this say about GOP chances to hold their open seats in more competitive districts?

Special elections aren't always reliable harbingers for Nov. Just look at CA-50 in '06. And, LA and IL were the easy seats. Almost half of the 26 open seats GOPers have to defend this fall are ones which Bush narrowly won in '04. Then there are the three incumbents (Kirk, Shays and Reichert), who sit in Kerry CD's. Add it up, and Dems get to double digit gains w/out much of a sweat. Given that math, will it matter who Dems have at the top of the ticket?