This Summer
“Proposal in [the second quarter] defends against attacks from the left while leaving too little time to finalize the rule.”
“On a blisteringly hot and humid Friday afternoon when nobody is around to complain or (more importantly for them) cover it. It's all about shoring up that base of his.”
“It won't go final until after the election.”
After the Election
“The M.O. of this administration is to make sweeping regulatory changes in a manner that will cause them the least amount of pain — therefore, these expensive regulations will not be rolled out until after the election.”
“The White House may think punting on Keystone was a big-enough bone for environmentalists and they don't have to do anything else for them before the election. And delay avoids providing grist for the ‘War on Coal’ mill.”
“The standards under development apply only to new power plants. But they will inevitably be used as the basis of an accusation that they will be applied to existing power plants. Since explaining the distinction is harder than making the accusation, I would predict that the administration would wait for a less-turbulent political environment to move forward.”
“There's relatively little upside within moving this before the election. On the other hand, not waiting will allow the issue to build into the overregulation and/or allowing ideology to trump economic-recovery narratives, which are both gaining traction among independents. His campaign is most vulnerable in these areas and cannot afford to fan the flames.”
“OMB is going to hold on to the [regulations] until after the election. No matter what the [regulations] say, they are going to send shock waves through the important Rust Belt states. To release [them] earlier would be a certain self-imposed wound.”
“This is a close call. I don't think this will really be a big issue politically, but the less risky option is to wait until after the election.”
Other (please specify)
“Some Friday after 4:45 p.m.”
“Just before Easter; Good Friday on April 6 would be ideal from a public-relations, biblical-reference standpoint.”
“I wouldn't be surprised if they issued a rule in late April or May. The Republicans and the coal industry will howl, but the standards will most likely just codify something that is already happening — the move by the electric-utility industry away from coal and toward natural-gas generation. That move is largely driven by price, but it also brings substantial benefits in the form of lower CO2 emissions.”
Will issuing the greenhouse-gas standards before the election bode well for President Obama politically?
(34 votes)
- Yes 38%
- No 62%
National Journal’s Energy and Environment Insiders Poll is a periodic survey of energy policy experts. They include:
Jeff Anderson, Paul Bailey, Kenneth Berlin, Andrew J. Black, Denise Bode, Kevin Book, Pat Bousliman, David Brown, Neil Brown, Stephen Brown, Kateri Callahan, McKie Campbell, Guy Caruso, Paul Cicio, Douglas Clapp, Eileen Claussen, Steve Cochran, Phyllis Cuttino, Kyle Danish, Lee Dehihns, Robbie Diamond, David Di Martino, Bob Dinneen, Sean Donahue, Jeff Duncan, John Felmy, Mike Ference, David Foster, Josh Freed, Don Furman, Paul Gilman, Richard Glick, Kate Gordon, Chuck Gray, Jason Grumet, Christopher Guith, Lewis Hay, Fritz Hirst, Jeff Holmstead, David Holt, Skip Horvath, Bob Irvin, Bill Johnson, Gene Karpinski, Joseph T. Kelliher, Brian Kennedy, Kevin Knobloch, David Kreutzer, Fred Krupp, Tom Kuhn, Con Lass, Mindy Lubber, Frank Maisano, Drew Maloney, Roger Martella, John McArther, Mike McKenna, Bill McKibben, Kristina Moore, Richard Myers, Aric Newhouse, Frank O'Donnell, Mike Olson, T. Boone Pickens, Thomas Pyle, Hal Quinn, Rhone Resch, Barry Russell, Joseph Schultz, Bob Simon, Scott Sklar, Bill Snape, Jeff Sterba, Christine Tezak, Susan Tierney, Andrew Wheeler, Brian Wolff, Franz Wuerfmannsdobler, and Todd Young.
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