“Obama’s Cushing campaign stop will turn out to be his Dukakis-in-the-tank moment come November. Everybody knows that the feds have no impact on whether or not this portion of the project moves forward.”
“White House involvement is the only reason that all federal permits are not issued already. Further White House meddling will not be beneficial.”
“Legally, no. Politically, yes, since our commander in chief is now trying to win the nickname ‘President Pipeline.’ ”
“It actually hurts Obama because it highlights the fact that he said no to the larger pipeline, the only action that required his support.”
What will be the effect on oil prices once the southern portion is actually built?
- Prices will go up 11%
- Prices will go down 14%
- Neither 75%
Prices will go up
"Oil prices will continue to rise because oil is traded in a global market where the completion of one pipeline in the U.S. is not enough to overcome growing demand from China and India and continuing uncertainty about Iran and the Middle East."
"By clearing out the 'Cushing glut,' two things will happen: The oversupply of oil that is keeping Midwestern gasoline prices relatively low will end (thus raising those prices), and the oil now sitting in Cushing will go to the Gulf—where it will mostly be converted into diesel for export, NOT for domestic gasoline. The shocking thing is that the Obama administration ought to know this; the galling thing is that no one seems interested in asking them about it."
Prices will go down
"It will be a very modest effect. Gasoline prices are largely set by Gulf Coast refineries, so they will be helped a little by extra supply. The bigger effect will be to reduce the very generous profit margins currently enjoyed by mid-continent refineries that currently have the excess crude to themselves, but charge gasoline prices keyed to the Gulf Coast anyway. They will come back closer to the national average for refining margins."
"The prices for crude at the Gulf Coast should go down, helping millions of gasoline consumers. They might even go down further when we can get pipelines to connect the Gulf Coast to the Bakken and the Canadian oil sands. Wait, I think one of those was proposed!"
"More supply will always help serve as a pressure relief on prices although the impact may not be as linear as everyone thinks. What is needed is the completion of the entire [Keystone] XL project to create sustained price impact."
"You need to connect the hose to the spigot if you want to water the lawn."
"No impact at all, but our oil will get to China more quickly."
"The refiners in the mid-continent are making a killing. Anything that de-bottlenecks will reduce refiners' margin, and have almost no effect on price."
"No, this will create some efficiencies in delivery, but if it's more than a few cents per gallon at the gasoline pump, I would be surprised."
"It will only have an impact on the price of oil if investors see the construction as a sign of things to come in terms of fostering more domestic development."
"Despite some of his words trying to explain the reality of industry manipulation of gas prices, all of his actions—from southern Keystone to Arctic drilling to delay on [Environmental Protection Agency] rules—indicate the president is scared of the gas-price mob."
"This will help alleviate the bottleneck of Bakken crude, but until the northern part of the Keystone that Obama has actively opposed is built and Canada's 700,000 barrels a day begin flowing into the Houston refineries, it will not impact the price of crude."
National Journal’s Energy and Environment Insiders Poll is a periodic survey of energy policy experts. They include:
Jeff Anderson, Paul Bailey, Kenneth Berlin, Andrew J. Black, Denise Bode, Kevin Book, Pat Bousliman, David Brown, Neil Brown, Stephen Brown, Kateri Callahan, McKie Campbell, Guy Caruso, Paul Cicio, Douglas Clapp, Eileen Claussen, Steve Cochran, Phyllis Cuttino, Kyle Danish, Lee Dehihns, Robbie Diamond, David Di Martino, Bob Dinneen, Sean Donahue, Jeff Duncan, John Felmy, Mike Ference, David Foster, Josh Freed, Don Furman, Paul Gilman, Richard Glick, Kate Gordon, Chuck Gray, Jason Grumet, Christopher Guith, Lewis Hay, Fritz Hirst, Jeff Holmstead, David Holt, Skip Horvath, Bob Irvin, Bill Johnson, Gene Karpinski, Joseph T. Kelliher, Brian Kennedy, Kevin Knobloch, David Kreutzer, Fred Krupp, Tom Kuhn, Con Lass, Mindy Lubber, Frank Maisano, Drew Maloney, Roger Martella, John McArther, Mike McKenna, Bill McKibben, Kristina Moore, Richard Myers, Aric Newhouse, Frank O'Donnell, Mike Olson, T. Boone Pickens, Thomas Pyle, Hal Quinn, Rhone Resch, Barry Russell, Joseph Schultz, Bob Simon, Scott Sklar, Bill Snape, Jeff Sterba, Christine Tezak, Susan Tierney, Andrew Wheeler, Brian Wolff, Franz Wuerfmannsdobler, and Todd Young.