U.S. to Achieve Energy Independence by 2035

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JAKARTA, INDONESIA: A fishing boat sails past a ship tanker of liquefied natural gas (LNG) at a port in Jakarta, 12 December 2005. Indonesia's state oil and gas firm Pertamina has rescheduled next year's exports LNG to Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and other countries due to falling output, a company spokesman said. Pertamina will reschedule the delivery of 61 shipments, 52 from its plant in Bontang, East Kalimantan, and nine from Arun in Aceh in 2006, Pertamina spokesman M. Harun told AFP. 
National Journal
Clare Foran
Jan. 15, 2014, 7:05 a.m.

The U.S. will achieve the long sought-after do­mest­ic policy goal of en­ergy in­de­pend­ence by 2035, ac­cord­ing to pro­jec­tions out­lined in BP’s En­ergy Out­look 2035 re­leased on Wed­nes­day.

The re­port, which fore­casts en­ergy trends head­ing in­to 2035, states that nat­ur­al-gas pro­duc­tion will con­tin­ue to rise, help­ing the United States main­tain its title as the world’s top nat­ur­al-gas pro­du­cer.

Surges in oil and gas out­put at home will also spur a 75 per­cent drop in oil im­ports and a rise in li­que­fied nat­ur­al-gas ex­ports.

“The U.S. will be­come a siz­able play­er in the [LNG ex­port] mar­ket,” Chris­tof Ruehl, BP’s chief eco­nom­ist told re­port­ers dur­ing a press call Tues­day. Ruehl pre­dicted that the coun­try is on track to be­come a net ex­port­er of the en­ergy source with­in three years. “Be­fore the end of the fore­cast­ing peri­od U.S. ex­ports for LNG will be the second largest in the world,” he ad­ded.

This pre­dic­tion ar­rives as de­bate over wheth­er the U.S. should ex­pand LNG and crude-oil ex­ports has in­tens­i­fied on Cap­it­ol Hill. Some law­makers say the United States should tread cau­tiously in ap­prov­ing new LNG ex­port ter­min­als and con­tend that a rise in ex­ports could cause nat­ur­al-gas prices to spike at home. Ex­port back­ers, on the oth­er hand, say in­creased ex­ports would spur trade and bol­ster the U.S. eco­nomy.

Rising nat­ur­al-gas con­sump­tion will also im­pact the en­vir­on­ment. As nat­ur­al gas over­takes oil to be­come the dom­in­ant fuel, U.S. car­bon emis­sions due to en­ergy con­sump­tion will fall by 6 per­cent.

“New tech­no­lo­gies such as for gas sup­plies shift the sup­ply to a less-car­bon-in­tens­ive mix,” Ruehl said.

Even with car­bon cut­backs at home, however, glob­al CO2 levels will rise by close to 30 per­cent by the end of 2035, with in­creases in emis­sions driv­en by fossil-fuel en­ergy use in de­vel­op­ing coun­tries.

Fossil fuels will also re­main dom­in­ant over re­new­ables in the U.S., des­pite a slight de­crease in fossil en­ergy de­mand from 85 per­cent to 80 per­cent by 2035. Re­new­ables, mean­while, will ac­count for only 8 per­cent of the do­mest­ic en­ergy mix by the end of the fore­cast­ing peri­od.

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