U.S. Oil Production Closing In on Record

None

MOORPARK, CA - SEPTEMBER 23: Smoke blows past oil wells at sunset on the eastern flank of the 16,000-plus-acre Guiberson fire, burning out of control for a second day as Red Flag warnings continue in southern California on September 23, 2009 near Moorpark, California. A Red Flag warning means critical wildfire weather, based on a combination of high temperatures, low humidity and Santa Ana winds, is occurring. Several large wildfires broke out in triple-digit temperatures on the first of Red Flag warnings.
National Journal
Ben Geman
Dec. 16, 2013, 6:21 a.m.

U.S. crude-oil pro­duc­tion will soar for sev­er­al more years to nearly match its 1970 re­cord in 2016, ac­cord­ing to fed­er­al pro­jec­tions re­leased Monday that un­der­score seis­mic shifts in the coun­try’s en­ergy land­scape.

The fed­er­al En­ergy In­form­a­tion Ad­min­is­tra­tion’s latest An­nu­al En­ergy Out­look pre­dicts that daily U.S. pro­duc­tion will rise to reach 9.5 mil­lion bar­rels per day in 2016, and then will level off be­fore slowly fall­ing after 2020.

Mean­while, U.S. nat­ur­al-gas pro­duc­tion, already at re­cord levels, is slated to keep soar­ing, ac­cord­ing to the an­nu­al re­port from the En­ergy De­part­ment’s in­de­pend­ent stat­ist­ic­al arm that fore­casts en­ergy trends through 2040.

The re­port pre­dicts a 56 per­cent in­crease in nat­ur­al-gas pro­duc­tion between 2012 and 2040, and it also charts rising gas ex­ports.

It pre­dicts that the U.S. will be­come a net ex­port­er of li­que­fied nat­ur­al gas in 2016 and an over­all net ex­port­er of gas in 2018—two years earli­er than last year’s re­port fore­casts.

The re­port, to be sure, is only EIA’s so-called ref­er­ence case—it as­sumes cur­rent laws and policies re­main un­changed. A wider range of fore­casts will ap­pear in an ex­pan­ded ver­sion of the re­port next spring.

But it non­ethe­less provides new evid­ence of a surge in U.S. oil and nat­ur­al-gas de­vel­op­ment that’s prompt­ing new polit­ic­al battles, such as wheth­er to ease heavy re­stric­tions on U.S. crude-oil ex­ports

“EIA’s up­dated ref­er­ence case shows that ad­vanced tech­no­lo­gies for crude oil and nat­ur­al gas pro­duc­tion are con­tinu­ing to in­crease do­mest­ic sup­ply and re­shape the U.S. en­ergy eco­nomy as well as ex­pand the po­ten­tial for U.S. nat­ur­al gas ex­ports,” said EIA Ad­min­is­trat­or Adam Siem­in­ski in a state­ment.

“Grow­ing do­mest­ic hy­dro­car­bon pro­duc­tion is also re­du­cing our net de­pend­ence on im­por­ted oil and be­ne­fit­ing the U.S. eco­nomy as nat­ur­al-gas-in­tens­ive in­dus­tries boost their out­put,” he said.

Ana­lysts are play­ing catch-up as de­vel­op­ment surges.

For in­stance, the “ref­er­ence” case in the 2013 ver­sion of the re­port pre­dicted that U.S. crude-oil pro­duc­tion would rise to 7.5 mil­lion bar­rels per day in 2016 be­fore lev­el­ing off and then start­ing to de­cline a few years later, a pro­jec­tion far be­low the fore­cast of 9.5 mil­lion bar­rels in the new re­port.

What We're Following See More »
TAKING A LONG VIEW TO SOUTHERN STATES
In Dropout Speech, Santorum Endorses Rubio
2 days ago
THE DETAILS

As expected after earlier reports on Wednesday, Rick Santorum ended his presidential bid. But less expected: he threw his support to Marco Rubio. After noting he spoke with Rubio the day before for an hour, he said, “Someone who has a real understanding of the threat of ISIS, real understanding of the threat of fundamentalist Islam, and has experience, one of the things I wanted was someone who has experience in this area, and that’s why we decided to support Marco Rubio.” It doesn’t figure to help Rubio much in New Hampshire, but the Santorum nod could pay dividends down the road in southern states.

Source:
‘PITTING PEOPLE AGAINST EACH OTHER’
Rubio, Trump Question Obama’s Mosque Visit
2 days ago
WHY WE CARE

President Obama’s decision to visit a mosque in Baltimore today was never going to be completely uncontroversial. And Donald Trump and Marco Rubio proved it. “Maybe he feels comfortable there,” Trump told interviewer Greta van Susteren on Fox News. “There are a lot of places he can go, and he chose a mosque.” And in New Hampshire, Rubio said of Obama, “Always pitting people against each other. Always. Look at today – he gave a speech at a mosque. Oh, you know, basically implying that America is discriminating against Muslims.”

Source:
THE TIME IS NOW, TED
Cruz Must Max Out on Evangelical Support through Early March
2 days ago
WHY WE CARE

For Ted Cruz, a strong showing in New Hampshire would be nice, but not necessary. That’s because evangelical voters only make up 21% of the Granite State’s population. “But from the February 20 South Carolina primary through March 15, there are nine states (South Carolina, Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Oklahoma, Tennessee, Kentucky, Mississippi, and North Carolina) with an estimated white-Evangelical percentage of the GOP electorate over 60 percent, and another four (Texas, Kansas, Louisiana, and Missouri) that come in over 50 percent.” But after that, he better be in the catbird’s seat, because only four smaller states remain with evangelical voter majorities.

Source:
CHRISTIE, BUSH TRYING TO TAKE HIM DOWN
Rubio Now Winning the ‘Endorsement Primary’
1 days ago
WHY WE CARE

Since his strong third-place finish in Iowa, Marco Rubio has won endorsement by two sitting senators and two congressmen, putting him in the lead for the first time of FiveThirtyEight‘s Endorsement Tracker. “Some politicians had put early support behind Jeb Bush — he had led [their] list since August — but since January the only new endorsement he has received was from former presidential candidate Sen. Lindsey Graham.” Meanwhile, the New York Times reports that fueled by resentment, “members of the Bush and Christie campaigns have communicated about their mutual desire to halt … Rubio’s rise in the polls.”

Source:
ARE YOU THE GATEKEEPER?
Sanders: Obama Is a Progressive
1 days ago
THE LATEST

“Do I think President Obama is a progressive? Yeah, I do,” said Bernie Sanders, in response to a direct question in tonight’s debate. “I think they’ve done a great job.” But Hillary Clinton wasn’t content to sit out the latest chapter in the great debate over the definition of progressivism. “In your definition, with you being the gatekeeper of progressivism, I don’t think anyone else fits that definition,” she told Sanders.

×