Tuesday’s announcement that Sen. Kent Conrad, D-N.D., will not seek reelection—with Sen. Joe Lieberman, ID-Conn., following suit today—accelerates an already rapid rate of turnover in the Senate that is altering the body’s composition and its leadership.
The last two elections cycles produced about one-third of the current members of the Senate: There have been 32 new senators sworn in since 2008, which represents the fastest turnover rate since the 1978 and 1980 elections, which together added 38 new members.
With the exits of Conrad and Lieberman in 2013, the Democratic leadership of the Agriculture; Appropriations; Budget; Banking; Health, Education, Labor and Pensions; Small Business; and Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs committees will have changed hands.
Senators and observers who bemoan a loss of comity and bipartisanship in the body will see Conrad’s exit as exacerbating that trend. Moderate Senate Republicans in particular have continued to dwindle both in number and influence. And the big and relatively liberal Democratic classes of 2006 and 2008 have increasingly asserted influence in recent months. Members of those classes successfully pressed party leaders to adopt a more aggressive communications approach and are pressing to alter Senate filibuster rules.
The moves by Conrad and Lieberman, who were likely to face stiffs challenges in 2012, follows an announcement last week by Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison, R-Texas, that she would not run again. And these early announcements only raise the question of which other incumbents will bow out ahead of 2012.
Sens. Jim Webb, D-Va., and Jon Kyl, R-Ariz., have left their 2012 reelection plans unclear. Sen. Ben Nelson, D-Neb., faces speculation because of presumed difficult elections.
Age and longevity is also a factor. Some veteran members such as California Democratic Sen. Dianne Feinstein, 77, and Hawaii Democratic Sen. Daniel Akaka, 86, as well as Indiana Republican Sen. Richard Lugar, 78, have been in the Senate long enough that retirement becomes a logical part of the calculation, whatever they decide.
Lugar plans a fundraiser this weekend, but that might mean little. Conrad was set to start airing a radio spot before deciding not to run again.
In his retirement announcement, Conrad said his decision will allow him to focus on legislative priorities, particularly budget balancing. Conrad, a noted deficit hawk, fulfilled a promise in 1992 not to run again if the budget deficit was not halved in his first term.
“There are serious challenges facing our state and nation, like a $14 trillion debt and America’s dependence on foreign oil, Conrad said. “It is more important I spend my time and energy trying to solve these problems than to be distracted by a campaign for reelection.”
“No one cares more about addressing the national debt than Kent, a man who knows the balance between fiscal responsibility and funding our national priorities,” Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid, D-Nev., said in a statement.
Conrad’s decision might be related to the recent exits of several colleagues. Last year, former Budget ranking member Judd Gregg, R-N.H., with whom Conrad worked closely, retired, and House Budget Committee Chairman John Spratt, D-S.C., lost his reelection race. Conrad has also repeatedly expressed disappointment at the exit of the other two members of the North Dakota delegation with whom he served for 18 years and called his “best friends.” Sen. Byron Dorgan, D-N.D., retired, and Rep. Earl Pomeroy, D-N.D., was defeated.
This week’s news echoes announcements made last year around the same time, and affecting the same two states, when Dorgan and Sen. Christopher Dodd, D-Conn., said they were hanging it up.
This article appeared in the Wednesday, January 19, 2011 edition of National Journal Daily.
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