As negotiators gather this week for international climate talks in Copenhagen, advocates of Senate climate legislation hope the conference, which starts today and lasts through Dec. 18, will increase momentum not only for a final binding treaty but also legislation next year.
At the same time, other factors might complicate that, including uncertain progress in getting developing nations like China and India to commit to verifiable carbon reduction goals and a potentially diverse set of lawmakers and staff that will send mixed messages to the international community on how far Congress is willing to go to combat climate change.
"One of the things we've heard for months from people is, 'Well, what is China going to do?' " Senate Foreign Relations Chairman John Kerry said. Kerry met Nov. 30 with Chinese Ambassador Zhou Wenzhong to talk about what the country can commit to at Copenhagen beyond its recent pledge to cut its carbon intensity -- which is tied to the country's gross domestic product -- upwards of 45 percent by 2020.
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"China can do more," Kerry said Thursday. "And there's more being discussed. Their first offer ... I think does not represent the final word and I think this is an ongoing discussion that everybody's having right now."
A group of nine Senate Democrats -- including swing voters like Ohio's Sherrod Brown, Michigan's Debbie Stabenow and Missouri's Claire McCaskill -- last week sent a wish list to President Obama for Copenhagen that included broad goals for the administration to ensure that developing nations will lower their emissions. The concern is that if they do not lower emissions and the United States does, it will lead to off-shoring of U.S. jobs because of the looser regulatory climate.
"There's a lot of concern, and rightly so," Senate Environment and Public Works Chairwoman Barbara Boxer said. "Are other countries going to do as much as we do? You know, are they sincere?" If Copenhagen is "a big flop and the other countries just say, 'We're not going to do a thing,'" then that spells trouble for the Senate talks, Boxer said. But she added: "I don't expect that to happen. I think it's going to be a good meeting."
Kerry also has high hopes that Obama and U.S. officials can reach at least a political agreement in Copenhagen with nations like China and India and other countries despite the lack of a complete Senate bill. "I don't believe it hampers his ability to negotiate at all," Kerry said.
Noting that "there is progress being made towards a meaningful Copenhagen accord," the White House Friday said Obama would delay his visit to the last day of the talks, Dec. 18.
Alden Meyer of the Union of Concerned Scientists, who arrived in Copenhagen Friday morning, said Obama's decision was well received by negotiators from developing nations in Africa and small island states also on the ground there.
"Frankly, they weren't too happy with the Dec. 9 date; they thought that was sort of a photo opportunity" for Obama absent any other major world leaders, Meyer said.
Meyer said EPA Administrator Jackson -- the first of several top administration officials who will speak at the talks -- can give essentially the same address Obama was expected to give Wednesday touting actions already taken in the United States. "You don't really need the president to do that; everyone's basically already aware of that," Meyer said.
Obama's late arrival with other heads of state also "puts pressure on the ministers ... to basically craft a compromise and reach a deal," Meyer said. "They want to deliver a package that their heads of state of government can rally behind and agree to" at the close of the conference, he said.
The White House also announced Friday that consensus is building for the Copenhagen talks to involve a commitment from developed countries to provide $10 billion annually by 2012 to help developing nations combat climate change and that the United States would pay its "fair share" of that investment.
Obama "is bridging one of the major gaps preventing a final, binding international agreement," said House Global Warming Chairman Edward Markey.
Senate Energy and Natural Resources ranking member Lisa Murkowski countered, "I'm surprised the president would commit our nation to billions in new and long-term spending, particularly in a year that has seen our government rack up a record deficit, and before our economy is back on track." Murkowski -- a potential swing vote in the Senate climate debate -- also wants money prioritized first for her home state of Alaska and other U.S. states that might need help adapting.
But the lack of a final congressional product -- or clear evidence that the Senate would approve something akin to what the House did in the summer -- only adds to the uncertainty about the effectiveness of the Copenhagen talks. "A lot of people are not showing us their final cards now ... and the big gorilla in the room has not acted," said Peter Goldmark, director of the climate and air program for the Environmental Defense Fund.
Sen. Joseph Lieberman, D-Conn. -- who is working with Kerry and Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., on bipartisan legislation to cap and trade greenhouse gas emissions -- said the three planned to continue talking to see whether they will be able to release at least an outline of a compromise while the Copenhagen talks are still active. "I think we agree that we're not at a stage to do legislation, but we're going to see if we can have some agreements on content, on some of the outlines of what we're doing, but we're not sure," Lieberman said Friday.
He said the three will wait until key panels like Finance and Agriculture have acted after the healthcare debate before they draft legislation. "We're going to wait 'til then to actually draft a bill because ... until we have those inputs, we can't get any real modeling done" by EPA, he said.
While Lieberman said presenting at least an outline in the next two weeks would be helpful, "I think the key factor for the U.S. in Copenhagen is that the president is going and that the president has committed to a target."
That target is roughly the same as a House-passed bill, which would reduce U.S. greenhouse gas emissions 17 percent below 2005 levels by 2020. Obama also takes to Copenhagen his authority to direct the EPA to regulate greenhouse gas emissions, which is "a very powerful tool," Lieberman said.
"I think he will cite those two things, those steps that have already been taken," said Murkowski, echoing the expectation of many observers of what they expect Obama's message to be in Copenhagen.
But those actions that have already occurred -- EPA's threat to regulate, the House-passed bill and the passage of a cap-and-trade plan in Boxer's panel over Republican objections -- create a lot of baggage for some senators who might be needed to eventually reach 60 votes as early as next spring.
"I think it's a monstrosity that reflects numerous trade-offs that were put in to win votes," Sen. Susan Collins, R-Maine, said of the House bill. "I think it's needlessly complex and I will have more to say about this issue" this week. Collins declined to detail a proposal she is working on with an unnamed senator. "Stay tuned," she said.
While neither Collins nor her staff will be in Copenhagen, some critics of congressional climate action so far plan to be. Environment and Public Works ranking member James Inhofe will be there probably during the same stretch early next week that Kerry and possibly Boxer will attend if party leaders find a window for them to go during the healthcare debate. Inhofe and other skeptical Republicans will have their aides there for longer as well.
That includes a top aide to Foreign Relations ranking member Richard Lugar, who is considered more amenable on the issue than Inhofe but is still skeptical of efforts so far to institute an economy-wide cap-and-trade plan. Kerry praised Lugar as "a very serious player that we obviously care about enormously." But he added: "He's not yet there. ... And not all of those people that will be there speaking are counted in our 60 votes."
There has been clear movement recently on the part of developing nations to at least outline what steps they might be willing to take. But questions remain over whether there will be the political will to negotiate after the spotlight of Copenhagen dims. So far, developing nations have not made binding commitments on verifying actions that are unsupported by financial and technological help by the United States and other developed nations.
Kerry said that while there will be some progress toward shoring up short-term financing for the developing world in Copenhagen, the long-term answer will linger. "I think the longer term is harder to figure out upfront early," he said. "I'm not sure we have to rush that out of Copenhagen."
In the meantime, Kerry and several other of his panel's Democrats last week introduced a bill intended as the "foundation" of a U.S. financial package, including areas such as adaptation, sharing green technologies and reducing deforestation.
Kerry last week also asked Secretary of State Clinton to include $3 billion in the FY11 budget toward helping developing nations mitigate climate change, nearly three times what Obama requested in this year's budget.
Despite other budget priorities and an escalating debt, Kerry said the rise in federal investment in helping developing nations is still warranted. "It's a component of America's foreign policy and our strength globally," he said. "So we just have to find a little bit more. Given other options in the budget, I think that's doable."
This article appeared in the Saturday, December 12, 2009 edition of National Journal Daily.
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