The latest Chinese military surprise -- in which Beijing sent five vessels to harass a U.S. surveillance ship, and then complained angrily that the Americans were operating illegally inside Chinese waters -- might have discomfited U.S. policymakers, but it likely won't be the last such incident the United States will face.
Overall, U.S.-China relations still are good, and Washington is trying to draw Beijing into taking a more active role in solving global economic and diplomatic problems. But such blowups seem almost inevitable as China continues to expand into a major world power, diplomats and military analysts say.
"What is happening is just normal jostling between a rising power and an established power," says Robert Work, a retired Marine Corps colonel and now a China-watcher at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments, a defense-oriented think tank. "There will be instances where the two nations cooperate and instances where they butt heads. There's no reason it has to turn hostile."
Indeed, after some harsher-than-usual charges and countercharges, both governments quickly put the latest issue aside -- or, more likely, shelved it until Chinese President Hu Jintao can bring it up to President Obama when the two meet at the Group of 20 summit in London next month. Beijing will be pushing the issue for some time.
But the incident occurred in a broad context. China clearly is an emerging power, with regional and some global ambitions. Its strengthened army and navy are beginning to feel their oats. While China's relations with Taiwan seem better than ever, there's always the possibility of a military conflict. And China wants to reduce American influence in Asia, its backyard.
"The only military that can contest China's position in the South China Sea effectively is the U.S. military," says Dennis Wilder, former President George W. Bush's top Asian adviser, who is now a national security analyst at the Brookings Institution. "What you're seeing is a Chinese military that wants to assert the claims that China has in this area. It feels it has some muscle."
Moreover, the Chinese are in the middle of a pan-Asia naval buildup that they dare not ignore. Japan has just built four helicopter-carrying destroyers. India now has three carrier battle groups and is expanding its fleet. South Korea is building three full fleets, centered on large-deck amphibious ships that could be converted into carriers. Australia is building up its navy.
To be sure, China has a history of providing military surprises. In 2001, it detained the 24-person crew of a crippled U.S. EP-3 surveillance plane for 10 days -- similarly, over Beijing's claim that the Americans had been flying over Chinese waters. Both cases rest on China's interpretation -- disputed by the United States -- of the U.N. Convention on the Law of the Sea.
In the past several years, the Chinese military has surprised U.S. analysts by shooting down one of its own communications satellites; surfacing a Chinese submarine in the midst of an American carrier battle group, and blocking a port visit by an American warship. The latest incident, involving the surveillance ship USNS Impeccable, was the worst since 2001.
Difficult for U.S. analysts to figure out is why the Chinese picked now to provoke such a faceoff. Besides coming so close to next month's Obama-Hu meeting, the incident follows a resumption of military-to-military talks, held at China's request, and a successful effort by China's navy to help the United States and other powers combat pirates in the Gulf of Aden.
"The Chinese have been sending a clear signal for months that they want a good relationship with the Obama administration and good relations with the U.S.," says Bonnie Glaser, a China-watcher at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a think tank that specializes in defense and security issues.
Glaser argues that one of the most important steps the two sides could take would be to hammer out an agreement that provides set procedures for dealing with such incidents and defusing them before they get out of control. The two worked out a Military Maritime Consultative Agreement in 1998, but it never was used.
"That's a big agenda item" for future negotiations, Glaser asserts. "There will be more incidents like this one in the future because the two navies will be operating in close proximity more than they used to. We have to agree that we need to use safer techniques for signaling our displeasure in these cases rather than risking an accident."
And the Pentagon is pressing for a more serious resumption of military-to-military talks, which give officers on both sides a chance to get to know one another better -- and to get a closer look at each other's forces as well.
Meanwhile, the Navy has dispatched a guided-missile destroyer to protect the Impeccable and other U.S. vessels that venture close to the offshore zone that China considers part of its waters. That's likely to forestall further harassment for a while, Glaser says, though it could create new questions about what to do if the destroyer becomes a provocation rather than a deterrent.
"It's not always easy to see into the Chinese system," Brookings' Wilder points out.
This article appeared in the Saturday, March 28, 2009 edition of National Journal Daily.
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