Monday, Nov. 23, 2009
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BY THE NUMBERS
Gone, But Not Missed
GOP Insiders On Bush-Cheney Absence
President Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are not being missed at this convention, at least not politically.
According to a National Journal survey, most Republican Insiders say they believe GOP presidential candidate Sen. John McCain will be helped by their absence from the podium. Bush and Cheney had been scheduled to speak tonight before the White House announced they would not be attending the convention because of Hurricane Gustav and the McCain campaign called off Monday's entire evening program.
Fifty-three Insiders said McCain would benefit by the absence of Bush and Cheney, while only seven said McCain would be hurt. Another eight Insiders said the absence of the two top Republicans would not have a significant impact on McCain's political fortunes.
"It's a net positive for McCain for the convention to focus on him and not on a president with a [low] approval rating that rivals Congress," said one Insider. "Let's face it, Bush-Cheney numbers are horrible," said another Insider. "The best place for them is managing the hurricane response."
Another cast their absence in a more positive light. "It isn't the lack of appearance by Bush and Cheney that helps, but rather the show of leadership by the GOP on a pending national crisis that helps McCain and the party."
Some Insiders said that with the approval rating stuck in the middle-30 percent range, Bush was never in much of a position to help McCain at this convention, particularly with swing voters.
"Let's face it, there's not much the president could do to help with a speech," said one Insider.
"There's a lot he could do by making sure Gustav doesn't become another Katrina."
While on balance Republican insiders thought McCain was helped, some acknowledged that the storm also presented a tricky political environment in which to frame their arguments against Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama, something GOP operatives believe is essential for McCain's candidacy to succeed. "If handled correctly this could really help McCain because he gets to be presidential by going down to the Gulf and showing firsthand how he would handle a crisis," said one Insider. "It hurts because it is harder to define Obama in this atmosphere."
Some Republican Insiders are nervous that despite the best efforts of the Bush administration and McCain, any images of hurricanes are bad for the party. "Monday night would have been a farewell," said one Insider. "Now it's a reminder of Bush-Cheney incompetence and that Bush is still in charge."
Another Insider said that Bush and Cheney "will be conspicuous by their absence and the explanation will relive the Katrina disaster."
While Republicans had hoped their convention would be devoted to getting out their message, now they're competing with another story. "This week was a chance for McCain's team to own the national spotlight and reset the election," said one Insider. "They are now competing with an act of nature, not an easy place to be."
And while some Insiders said the absence of Bush and Cheney would neither help nor hurt McCain, there was still a strong sense that Gustav had presented an important opportunity for Bush, McCain and the Republicans to undo some of the political damage from Katrina. "The hurricane gives all of the GOP a do-over in effective government," said one Insider.
Added another Insider: "The only thing that matters is how FEMA and [the] feds respond to the disaster. If the lessons were learned from Katrina, at best it's a minor positive and if nothing works and the response is inadequate, game over for the GOP."
We also asked prominent bloggers to answer this question.
GOP Political Insiders: Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.