Monday, Nov. 23, 2009
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Democratic Insiders Poll
Q. How big of a bounce -- if any -- will his convention give Barack Obama?
(63 votes) 15 or more points 0 percent 10 to 14 points 6 percent 7 to 9 points 17 percent 4 to 6 points 49 percent 1 to 3 points 22 percent No bounce 3 percent Don't know 2 percent
10 to 14 points
"If voters listen, Obama offers a lot to like."
7 to 9 points
"I pray for this. Higher is smoking something and what the Republicans want us to say--very hard to do."
"If the Hillary renegades come aboard, they will [get this bounce]."
4 to 6 points
"But it won't last very long with the GOP convention starting on Monday. By the end of the GOP confab, Obama will have a small lead."
"Four to six points in some states, say Colorado; less in others that are polarized along racial lines, say most of the South."
"Conventions don't get the attention that they did in the past. And if he gets a bump, it will be small."
"We are in middling times: The base vote represents about 45 percent support at any given time, leaving a relatively small percentage of truly undecideds. Big swings are not realistic, no matter the drama of the conventions."
"Piggyback conventions and McCain's pick of a VP on Friday will keep the bounce down."
"This race has become quite polarized, quite quickly. I'd be surprised if there was a bigger bounce than this."
"Five points [of Obama's bounce] disappears after the GOP convention. We'll be back to a dead heat by mid-September."
"The choice between Obama and McCain is so stark that most people have made up their minds. And that puts a cap on the size of any bounce."
1 to 3 points
"The days of big convention bounces are over. Smaller television audiences and back-to-back conventions cancel out the potential of a big bounce."
"The race is already fairly locked in, with limited room for movement. And the Republican VP pick and convention will serve as an effective bulwark to arrest any significant momentum."
"There has been little movement in the race overall. And the timing of the Republican convention will likely offset any significant gains during the Democratic convention."
"Conventions aren't what they used to be."
"The Republican pit bulls have already framed the [Democratic] candidate going into the convention and will further undermine him with a barrage of ads that appear to make it difficult for the convention to move many voters."
"There just isn't much time for a bounce. The Republicans start pounding on Obama on Monday in prime time. And that will take a short-term toll."
"Historic how late and close [together] these conventions are taking place. Not much room for bumps."
"Let's manage expectations."
No bounce
"The convention is already a success, but it ends on Thursday. And then McCain will name his veep, and then the GOP convention takes place."
We also asked prominent bloggers to answer this question.
Democratic Political Insiders: Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof and Jim Zogby.