BY THE NUMBERS

A Mission For McCain

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Thursday, Sept. 4, 2008


When Sen. John McCain delivers his acceptance speech tonight, Republican political Insiders say they hope he will be able to convince Americans that he understands their economic problems, and that, if elected, his administration will not be the equivalent of a third term for President Bush.

Bloggers PollNational Journal has invited top bloggers to join in its survey of insiders for the Republican and Democratic conventions.

According to a survey of Republican Insiders by National Journal, 27 said they would like to see him "show that he grasps Americans' economic problems," while 18 said they want him to "make the case that his won't be a third Bush term." Another 10 Insiders said that they would like to see him "play the commander-in-chief card."

And, perhaps reflecting the tough campaign ahead and the importance of his prime-time address tonight, 15 Insiders said they would most like to see him accomplish at least all of these goals.

For a convention that has been short on economic themes and a candidate who has previously stated he wasn't well-versed on the economy, many Insiders believe this is the critical issue for McCain to speak to this evening, given the public's anxiety over jobs, inflation, the housing market and their retirement security.

"Ultimately, this election will be decided on which candidate best articulates an economic vision for the future," predicted one Republican Insider. "McCain has stated publicly he doesn't understand economic policy. Here's his chance to prove he is underestimated and 'gets it.'"

Said another: "This is a cost-of living-election. McCain must connect to struggling working- and middle-class swing state voters to have a chance in November." Many Republicans acknowledge this has been McCain's weakest issue in the campaign. "If he can illustrate his understanding and plans to fix the economy, everything else will fall in line," said another Insider.

Some Insiders see this as an issue on which McCain needs to show more passion and understanding so he can connect with voters. "This is where the voters are [and] the Democrats 'get it,'" said one Insider. "We need to show we get it as well, and not just cede the issue."

McCain's heroic military record is already well known to most, said another Insider. "He needs to connect with the American people as more than a resume, more than a figure to be respected and trusted but rather as someone who, while possessing those traits, also has the ability to understand what real life is like for real Americans and that he understands it sufficiently well to make it better."

Republican Insiders differ on how starkly McCain needs to separate himself from the Bush administration, but many say there must be clear daylight between the two if the GOP is to have a chance of holding the White House.

"The whole premise of the Democrats' campaign is that it would be a third Bush term," said one Insider. "Undermining that, without alienating [the] base is key, and takes away 'change' from [Barack] Obama."

Many suspect McCain can do that by reminding voters that he is a maverick. "He needs to show himself as a reformer," said an Insider. "And implicit in the word 'reform' is that he will break with the Bush-Cheney pattern of being overly macho in foreign policy."

Several Insiders volunteered that McCain has to score multiple points tonight on the economy, Bush and national security. Said one: "If McCain doesn't do all three then he will have a hard time getting the bounce he needs to make the race competitive again."

We also asked prominent bloggers to answer this question.

GOP Political Insiders: Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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