CONGRESS

House Republicans Optimistic That The Worst Is Over

by Richard E. Cohen

Thursday, Sept. 4, 2008


"Don't call us. We'll call you."

That's the message that Rep. Tom Cole, who chairs the National Republican Congressional Committee, received about the possible rescheduling of speeches that he and eight other House Republican members and candidates were scheduled to give during the hurricane-shortened convention session on Monday.

But as often has been the case lately for congressional Republicans, Cole and his team have been seeking to make the most of their ill fortune. Some of them have gotten more publicity over their uncertain status than they would have if they had actually delivered formulaic two-minute speeches before a sparse convention audience. "This is a better story," Cole declared.

During this election cycle, House Republicans have been waiting to hit bottom as they suffered through a miserable and distracting series of setbacks: $18 million in inherited campaign debt; revelations of financial mismanagement at the NRCC extending back several years; more than two dozen incumbent retirements; and special-election losses this spring in three solidly GOP districts.

But an upbeat Cole contended on Wednesday that their prospects have turned around of late. "We are in a much better position than people thought 12 or six months ago," he said.

He drew an analogy to a football team making a comeback after a rough first half. The McCain-Palin ticket has boosted the party base's morale, he noted. Moreover, congressional Republicans believe they are reaping political benefits from the gasoline price issue, and they have also have had some recent good breaks in races across the nation.

Republicans are encouraged by anecdotal evidence in battleground House districts over the past month. Strong GOP nominees appear to have prevailed in competitive primaries to take on freshman Democratic Reps. Tim Mahoney of Florida and Nancy Boyda of Kansas. Democrats have suffered with the tentative entry of an independent African-American candidate for the Louisiana seat that Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux won in May. And Cole likes his party's prospects in two open seats in Alabama.

Other GOP leaders share the growing enthusiasm. "The issues are moving in our direction," House Minority Whip Roy Blunt said. He added that the Republicans' recent protest over energy policy has driven home the point that the Democrats control Congress. "Republicans are more popular with voters who understand that Democrats are in charge," Blunt said.

Despite the rocky start of the convention, congressional Republicans hope that their time in the Twin Cities has solidified their relationship with the McCain campaign. "He has energized our base and gives us strong air cover, especially with most of our [House] races in Republican districts," Cole said. "The stronger John McCain does, the better off we are.... We talk with his campaign a lot."

House Republicans cite the boost that McCain's pick of running mate Sarah Palin gives them in conservative districts. By contrast, many of this year's most competitive Senate contests are in states that lean more Democratic, where embattled GOP incumbents such as Norm Coleman of Minnesota and John Sununu of New Hampshire hope to benefit from McCain's independent bearings.

Democrats hope to exploit this dichotomy. "Palin doesn't appeal to independents," Rep. Chris Van Hollen, chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, said in a tour through the GOP convention on Wednesday. "There is no evidence so far that [her selection] makes a play for Hillary Clinton voters."

Asked about recent GOP optimism, Van Hollen replied, "I don't see it." And he said that the Republicans' attacks on a "broken Washington" that they controlled until recently are "difficult to stomach."

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