BY THE NUMBERS

GOP Insiders See Boost For McCain

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Tuesday, Sept. 2, 2008


Republican political Insiders generally agree that the disruption of Sen. John McCain's convention program caused by Hurricane Gustav has not wounded his presidential bid and, indeed, might have helped it.

Bloggers PollNational Journal has invited top bloggers to join in its survey of insiders for the Republican and Democratic conventions.

But at the same time, there is some eagerness in the Republican ranks for the convention to quickly return to its more traditional program and get about laying the groundwork for McCain's fall campaign.

In a survey by National Journal, 34 Republican Insiders said they believed the changes in the convention program -- including canceling Monday night's session while the storm pounded the Gulf Coast -- benefit McCain's candidacy. Another nine said the changes were "no problem at all."

But 22 Insiders said the alterations presented a "small problem" for McCain in framing the election and defining his Democratic rival, Sen. Barack Obama of Illinois. And 10 Insiders said the changes were a "big problem" in that regard.

Those Insiders who felt the program changes had actually helped McCain's cause repeated a refrain that has been heard in the convention hallways and hotel lobbies since the decision was made Sunday to scrub Monday night's program: that missing the scheduled prime time speech of President Bush and the remarks by Vice President Cheney was no loss at all, and that McCain looked like he was putting the country's interests ahead of partisan politics.

Bush, whose approval ratings are mired in the mid-30-percent range, will address the convention tonight, but by video rather than in person.

"The changes in the convention schedule help McCain hugely -- no Bush or Cheney in Minneapolis," said one Insider. "McCain gets to look non-partisan and above the fray when he does speak."

Echoed another Insider: "This gives McCain a chance to not share the stage with the old guard and start anew."

Some Insiders pointed out the McCain programming change, which saw the candidate packing hurricane relief supplies in Ohio, highlighted his perceived political strengths.

"This shows McCain outside of a partisan setting," said one GOP Insider. "Whenever he is an R, he's going down; when he's something else -- statesman, maverick, reformer -- he's advantaged."

Added another Insider, "This is McCain's convention and he made the call that the nation's attention should be on the hurricane, not politicians."

But other Republican Insiders saw the interruption of the carefully scripted regular schedule as a mixed blessing, particularly because the GOP convention missed a good shot at a larger television audience.

"We lost some prime-time opportunities, but got to get rid of the weaker speakers," said one Insider who viewed the changes as just a small problem for McCain.

And after a well-choreographed convention by Obama in Denver, in which one Democratic speaker after another linked McCain to the unpopular president and pounded away at Republicans, many party operatives said they believe they need to return fire.

"There is time to recover but, I hope, we begin defining Obama very soon," said one Insider.

"The Dems spent four days framing the election," said one Republican Insider who contended the program changes had been a big problem for McCain. "If this doesn't affect our plans, then our convention was ill-conceived. This whole week is a disaster for the GOP so far."

Another Insider was more upbeat, though wary: "If anyone can handle this, our political master of improvisation is the guy. Still, having to ad lib something this big is a nightmare."

We also asked prominent bloggers to answer this question.

GOP Political Insiders: Dan Allen, Stan Anderson, Gary Andres, Saulius (Saul) Anuzis, Rich Ashooh, Whit Ayres, Brett Bader, Mitch Bainwol, Gary Bauer, David Beckwith, Wayne Berman, Charlie Black, Kirk Blalock, Carmine Boal, Jeff Boeyink, Ron Bonjean, Jeff Buley, Luke Byars, Nick Calio, Danny Carroll, Ron Christie, Jim Cicconi, Cesar Conda, Jake Corman, Charlie Crist, Greg Crist, Diane Crookham-Johnson, Fergus Cullen, Rick Davis, Mike Dennehy, Ken Duberstein, Steve Duprey, Debi Durham, Frank Fahrenkopf, John Feehery, Don Fierce, Carl Forti, Alex Gage, Sam Geduldig, Benjamin Ginsberg, Bill Greener, Jonathan Grella, Lanny Griffith, Janet Mullins Grissom, Doug Gross, Todd Harris, Steve Hart, Christopher Healy, Ralph Hellmann, Chris Henick, Terry Holt, David Iannelli, Clark Judge, David Keating, David Kensinger, Bruce Keough, Bob Kjellander, Ed Kutler, Chris Lacivita, Jim Lake, Chuck Larson, Steve Lombardo, Kevin Madden, Joel Maiola, Gary Maloney, David Marin, Mary Matalin, Dan Mattoon, Bill McInturff, Mark McKinnon, Kyle McSlarrow, Ken Mehlman, Jim Merrill, Mike Murphy, Phil Musser, Ron Nehring, Terry Nelson, Neil Newhouse, David Norcross, Ziad Ojakli, Jack Oliver, Van B. Poole, Tom Rath, Scott Reed, David Rehr, Steve Roberts, Jason Roe, David Roederer, Ed Rogers, Dan Schnur, Russ Schriefer, Rich Schwarm, Brent Seaborn, Rick Shelby, Andrew Shore, Don Sipple, Robin Smith, Javier Soto, Fred Steeper, Bob Stevenson, Eric Tanenblatt, Heath Thompson, Jay Timmons, Warren Tompkins, Ted Van Der Meid, Dirk van Dongen, Jan van Lohuizen, Dick Wadhams, John Weaver, Tom Wilson, Dave Winston, Ginny Wolfe, and Fred Wszolek.

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