ANALYSIS

Young Republicans See Hope In November

by Jessica Taylor

Monday, Sept. 1, 2008


Democratic nominee Barack Obama generated excitement among young voters early in his campaign for president, but recent polls show Republican John McCain gaining in youth support. And young Republicans say they hope the trend continues until November.

According to a Reuters/Zogby poll in early July, Obama's support among 18-to-29-year-olds was nearly double McCain's--64 percent to 26 percent. By mid-August, the Reuters/Zogby numbers showed that although the senator from Illinois still dominated, his share of support among young adults decreased to 52 percent while the Arizonan's rose to 29 percent.

Charlie Smith, national director of the College Republicans, says that those numbers carry a message: Younger voters are looking beyond Obama's rhetoric and are now examining his policy proposals. "There's some part of Obama's message that's no longer appealing to them," Smith said.

A 2007 graduate of the University of Denver, Smith pointed to one campaign ad in particular that he believes tapped into the issues swaying youth voters--McCain's infamous "Celebrity" spot comparing Obama to hotel heiress Paris Hilton and pop singer Britney Spears, implying that people who are famous don't necessarily make good presidents. Smith said that the spot appealed to his generation by equating Obama with less-than-admirable Hollywood traits, and that recent polls are reflecting such growing skepticism. "They were real excited about this new, flashy Obama thing," he said, "but it's worn off."

Peter Levine, director of Tufts University's Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement, cautioned against putting youth support in the Democrats' column too early. "I have long felt that there was plenty of potential for the vote to shift," he said. "People see all this support for Obama, which is big. But, actually, a majority of young voters in the primaries voted for someone else, either another Democrat or the Republican."

The Democrats' primary contest brought out more voters because there were more options for them in the longer, more competitive season, which lasted from January until June, Levine said, whereas McCain emerged as the likely winner of the GOP nod in March.

The potential for voter shift is encouraging to Republicans. Smith conceded that the brand has suffered in recent years with college-age voters but adds that McCain's maverick streak in Congress, his bipartisan appeal, and his broad experience are drawing young voters away from Obama.

"Even if you disagree with him specifically, you can really find a respect for him," Smith said. "He'll do what he believes is right for the country, and not necessarily what he believes is politically expedient for him at the time."

This election season has also introduced many avenues for connecting with younger voters--including text messages, social networking websites, and the blogosphere--and both campaigns are trying to reach the crucial youth vote in technologically savvy ways.

Adrian Talbott is the executive director for GenerationEngage, a nonpartisan youth engagement initiative that is also trying to reach voters through multiple media. He has traveled the country targeting young noncollege voters to encourage them to get involved in the 2008 elections, using technologies such as video chats that allow potential voters to talk with local, state, and national leaders from both parties. Although they belong to the most plugged-in generation in history, many younger voters, especially those not on college campuses, don't have ready Internet access. Video conferencing and other techniques are making it easier to reach previously hard-to-contact voters.

"Technology is not only increasingly available but it's a medium in which young people communicate," Talbott said. Both the Obama and McCain campaigns have been "great on youth in general," he said, more out of necessity than altruism. "They're not doing it because they're good guys, but because there are votes to be won," he said.

Levine cautions, however, that there are technological forces at work beyond the control of the candidates and their campaigns. Web sites such as Facebook and YouTube are actively engaging young people in the political discourse. While more of the Internet traffic seems to be moving in Obama's direction, that again doesn't necessarily equate to votes.

"More people are definitely mobilizing for Obama, and unless the Republicans do something to change that, it will cause there to be a large surge of young votes for Obama," Levine said. "I also think that's changeable, but they have to actually try to change it."

As members of the College Republicans return to their campuses after the convention and gear up for November 4, they will resort to such traditional in-person strategies as "pressing the flesh," Smith said, but the organization will also emphasize communicating with younger voters online, which he calls "the new front in politics." One tactic will use a new online action network called Storm, in which voters can create their own Web pages to post videos and publicize events. Members earn points by recruiting their friends and then parlay the points into event tickets, merchandise, and trips.

Levine believes that the youth vote could remain up in the air until late in the campaign. "Young people are just relatively likely to change their minds," he said. "They're forming their opinions and they're learning. They tend to be the group that says they made up their minds the latest, on Election Day. I would never read the polling results at any given moment for young people as written in stone."

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