GUSTAV

Gustav Flings GOP Into Ad Hoc Planning

Hurricane's Damage Will Likely Dictate How The Rest Of The Week Unfolds, Officials Say

by Corine Hegland

Monday, Sept. 1, 2008


The old themes of the Republican convention in Minneapolis-St. Paul were service, reform, prosperity, and peace. The new theme, which emerged as officials scrambled to react to Hurricane Gustav's forecast strike on Louisiana this afternoon, is unpredictable.

"One of the things we know about hurricanes is that many times they do the unpredictable," John McCain said on Sunday as he told reporters that much of today's convention activities were being suspended.

"As John says, there is a very unpredictable nature to these hurricanes," Rick Davis, McCain's campaign manager, said a few moments later as he announced the details of the activities that had been canceled out of respect for the situation developing on the Gulf Coast. "We can't be predictive of it. By nature, it is an unpredictable event."

By Sunday night, the only thing that could be safely predicted about the coming week was that under no circumstances would Republican revelry overlap with Gustav-related misery.

This afternoon, when Gustav's Category 4 winds were forecast to strike the Gulf Coast, delegates would be somberly called to order for a brief, necessary session of business devoid, according to Davis, of any partisan rhetoric.

This evening, when floodwaters and submerged rooflines could dominate the news, the convention center will be dark. Tonight's program, which was to feature President Bush, first lady Laura Bush, Vice President Cheney, California Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, Minnesota Gov. Tim Pawlenty, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and a dozen senators and House members, has been canceled.

As for Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday night, well, they depend on the unpredictable Gustav. The opening and closing dates of the convention cannot be moved without enormous logistical and financial costs, but the nature and content of the activities on those days can be changed as events unfold.

If Gustav's impact is minimal, many of today's speakers may be restored on subsequent nights. Officials managing the week's speakers said they are continuing with previously scheduled plans to write speeches and rehearse their charges until they are directed to do otherwise.

If, however, Gustav devastates the coast, more speakers can be canceled and delegates redirected from politics to charitable fundraising and relief. "I don't believe postponing and finishing later is an option, [but] everything else is on the table," said David Norcross, chairman of the 2004 convention and a member of the RNC Rules Committee. "We've got to finish by Thursday; nobody has hotel rooms on Friday night."

At a minimum, the speakers' lineup will face some shuffling as Gulf Coast Govs. Bobby Jindal of Louisiana and Charlie Crist of Florida, are also likely to miss their speaking slots. "It's wait-and-see," said Nick Ayers, executive director of the Republican Governors Association.

A hurriedly formed SWAT team of campaign and convention officials led by Davis and including Bill Harris, McCain's convention liaison; RNC Chairman Mike Duncan and Co-chairman Jo Ann Davidson; convention President and CEO Maria Cino; and convention program manager Ed Goeas started their marathon contingency planning at 5 a.m. on Sunday.

"You're literally taking something that took six months to plan and completely changing it and operating it in real time," one participant said. "That is not easy."

In addition to the changes in today's program, officials established a working group led by the party chairs of the Gulf States in harm's way and an information center inside the Xcel Energy Center to provide delegates with current hurricane information and emergency resources. They also called on event sponsors at the convention to strongly consider turning parties into fundraisers for the Gulf Coast.

At the welcoming party in Minneapolis, delegates said they understood and appreciated the convention changes. "I think it's a good thing," said Alaska delegate Dick Stoffel. "I think we should tone the convention down and not have a big celebration. If you do the right thing, in the long run it works for the best."

"I am anxious about what I can do for those in the Gulf," said Kathi Thomason, a Hawaii delegate. "I am here to be of service, and I'm looking forward to giving blood."

Mark Schleifstein, a hurricane writer at the Times-Picayune in New Orleans, said that Gustav, while "still a significant storm," was not likely to be another Katrina. "You'll see very familiar pictures from, say, the Midwest flooding, as communities are inundated by water," he said. But if New Orleans is spared -- and by Sunday evening he was cautiously optimistic that it would be -- then the flooded areas were likely to see the water retreat within days, instead of weeks. Furthermore, unlike in Katrina, most of the population in the threatened area has departed, which means fewer people are likely to be harmed. "The evacuation has worked much better this time," he said.

According to Norcross, only a few key tasks need to be done, including opening the convention, adopting rules, and approving the nominees. "Instead of thinking about it as we've come to -- as a great, choreographed show -- think of the convention as a group of people coming together for a purpose. The rest of it is not essential," he said.

James Barnes, Brian Friel, and Bara Vaida contributed to this report.

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