By The Numbers: Same Message, Different Year

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Thursday, Aug. 28, 2008


As Democratic strategist James Carville might put it, "It's still the economy, stupid." Thirty-one Democratic Party Insiders surveyed by National Journal said the primary objective of Sen. Barack Obama's acceptance speech tonight must be to demonstrate that he "grasps Americans' economic problems."

Bloggers PollNational Journal has invited top bloggers to join in its survey of insiders for the Democratic and Republican conventions.

Against a backdrop of high gasoline prices, the housing slump and waning consumer confidence, addressing the economy was clearly the top choice of the Insiders. Another 19 said Obama's foremost challenge in the Invesco Field at Mile High speech accepting his party's nomination was to "establish that he's ready to be commander-chief."

And even after strong endorsements from his former rival for the Democratic nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, nine Insiders said they believe Obama must "make the sale with Clinton's supporters" in his acceptance speech. Another five Insiders said Obama needed to accomplish some combination of these tasks.

Many Insiders see the public's increasing sourness over the state of the economy as the clearest route to a Democratic victory over Arizona GOP Sen. John McCain in the fall. "Obama wants a race about economic issues and should have a speech on the terms he wins the presidency with," said one Insider.

"He has the same challenge both Ronald Reagan in 1980 and Bill Clinton in 1992 faced coming in to their respective conventions -- a country desirous of change but with concerns about the character of the change candidate," one Insider said. "And in both cases the macro trends favoring the change candidate manifested themselves in a major way as a result of successful conventions where both Reagan and Clinton offered a specific, economic-based vision for the country that also told voters about their character."

Many Insiders said that talking about the economy was the best way for Obama to earn the confidence of the electorate. "It's simple; he has to show he understands the problems of average Americans and that he can lead," said one. "In short, he has to establish trust with the voters."

While popular with upper-income and better-educated voters, Obama had some trouble forging a bond with working-class whites during the primaries. Many of those voters backed Clinton. Tonight, though, many Democrats are optimistic he can show he understands their anxieties.

"Obama needs to convey to the American public that he understands the challenges they are facing in their lives and he has a plan to address their concerns," said one Insider. "He needs to connect with more people on his plans to improve the economy," noted another Insider. "It is the single most important connection to undecided voters he needs to make in his speech."

Another Insider recalled the now-near-legendary message -- "It's the economy, stupid" -- that Carville scribbled on a chalkboard in Clinton's campaign war room during his 1992 campaign. The Obama team "might need to bring in James Carville as their interior decorator," the Insider said.

But among other Insiders, there is a sense that the economy is already working Obama's way and he needs to address one of his greatest perceived vulnerabilities -- whether he has the seasoning and capacity to be commander-in-chief. "This election will be a referendum on Obama," asserted one Insider. "Every [other] indicator favors Obama -- he simply must convince the public that he is up to this task."

As another Insider put it: "Nothing else matters if Obama does not pass the commander-in-chief test. He must add some depth and strength to the public's perception of him in the remaining weeks."

We also asked prominent bloggers to answer this question.

Democratic Political Insiders: Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof and Jim Zogby.

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