By The Numbers: Hillary Expected To Deliver

Democratic Insiders Say Obama's Primary Rival Will Do A Better Job Making His Case This Week Than Her Husband

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Tuesday, Aug. 26, 2008


Who will make the stronger case for Barack Obama when they address the convention, Bill or Hillary? By a margin of more than two-to-one, Democratic Party Insiders surveyed by National Journal said they expected Obama's defeated rival for the Democratic presidential nomination, Sen. Hillary Rodham Clinton of New York, to deliver the goods.

Bloggers PollNational Journal has invited top bloggers to join in its survey of insiders for the Democratic and Republican conventions.

Fifty-one Insiders said Sen. Clinton would make the stronger case for Obama, compared with 20 who said the former president would be the nominee's bigger booster. Three Insiders said they expected they would be equally strong advocates for Obama.

Some Insiders contend Sen. Clinton will deliver a stronger performance because she has more at stake. "She needs to for her future political career and frankly, Bill Clinton must find it very difficult to say anything nice about Barack Obama," said one Insider. "To preserve her presidential hopes, she has to be an enthusiastic backer of Obama's candidacy," said another. "I don't think Bill wants anybody but him to be a Democratic president."

To some Insiders, math and politics are the difference; since Sen. Clinton won more primaries than Obama, she has to deliver to help Democrats win the White House.

"It's her supporters that have to be delivered," said one Insider. "The delegates in question are hers, not Bill's, although he would be the last to admit it," said another.

And while some of her supporters are nursing hurt feelings from that fight, another Insider said Sen. Clinton has to come through "or this wound she helped create will not heal. It won't be believed coming from Bill -- his act has worn thin."

Indeed, many Democratic Insiders have low expectations for the former president. "We'll be lucky if Bill says a word about Obama," said one Insider. Another added, "Bill is still angry that Obama dissed his presidency. I don't blame him."

Ironically, the shoe was on the other foot 16 years ago when Bill Clinton selected then-New York Gov. Mario Cuomo, with whom Clinton had an uneasy relationship, to deliver his nominating speech in New York. Clinton wanted Cuomo's blessing as a way of gaining support from the liberal Northeastern wing of the party, who considered Cuomo their hero. At the same time, some observers wondered whether the mercurial New Yorker who harbored presidential ambitions would give Clinton a full-throated endorsement.

Cuomo delivered, and Clinton went on to win the first of his two terms in the White House. Now, many Insiders are looking for history to repeat when Bill Clinton steps to the podium Wednesday night. "He's a natural on a giant stage like this, and he rises to these occasions," one Insider noted. "Bill has a bigger leap to make," said another Insider. "The expectation will be higher and will be met."

And some Insiders think his speech at the convention crowning the first black presidential nominee from a major party could play a role in shaping the ex-president's legacy. "This is his moment to repair his image," said one Insider.

But the stakes are high for both Clintons. "The burden is on both Clintons to make a strong case for Barack Obama and strong case against [GOP presidential candidate John] McCain and continued Republican rule," said one Insider. "They cannot afford to leave Denver with any impression that they are not fully committed to helping Sen. Obama win this election or they risk damage to their reputations and Sen. Clinton's political future."

We also asked prominent bloggers to answer this question.

Democratic Political Insiders: Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof and Jim Zogby.

  •  
  •