Democratic Insiders Poll

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Monday, Aug. 25, 2008


Q: Pick the demographic group that Obama most needs to sway during the convention.

(76 votes)
Whites over age 45       42 percent
Blue-collar workers      32 percent
Women                    21 percent

Also receiving votes: all of the above, 3 percent; middle class, 1 percent; and working class, 1 percent.

Whites over age 45

"Let's not kid ourselves: This campaign is about race. White voters over 45 have traditional attitudes about race, while young whites don't care whether Obama is black or blue."

Bloggers PollNational Journal has invited top bloggers to join in its survey of insiders for the Democratic and Republican conventions.

"They vote in large numbers. And he needs a lot of 'em."

"Particularly the lower socioeconomic group."

"Latent racism is, unfortunately, still a challenge to overcome."

"Older white women and older white men in general--including older white Democrats--are the demographics that Obama really has to continue to try to bring home. There is still lots of work to do to reach and convince this key demographic in important states that have lots of them. Pennsylvania and Ohio are two good examples."

"Whites 45-plus who are largely blue collar."

"But the bull's-eye really is white, blue-collar women over 45. This is the make-or-break group in the election. If Obama carries them by traditional Democratic margins in the swing states, he wins. If McCain peels some away, [the outcome is] really tight."

Blue-collar workers

"Unfortunately, they may be the hardest to reach."

"This election needs to be about the economy for Obama."

"The better he does with this group, the better he will do in the states he needs to pick up."

"Generically, surveys indicate that whites over 45 are a key target, yet looking at the electoral map, Obama will need to shore up his support among blue-collar workers if he is to capture the winning tally in the Electoral College. Pennsylvania, Ohio, Missouri, and Virginia are among the states to focus time and effort on to woo these important voters."

"Blue-collar workers, including as well, however, white males over 45."

"It is one thing to talk about an economic plan, but it is another to have voters believe that you truly understand and feel their pain. That is essential for an Obama win."

"They don't relate to Harvard Law School, Honest Tea, and Hawaiian vacations."

Women

"For the simple reason that this farce of a vice presidential selection process exposed for all to see that the strongest and most qualified candidate was left by the wayside: They didn't even vet her."

"Women [are the] biggest problem. They aren't coming over in massive numbers."

"Senator Obama needs to consolidate women voters, particularly Clinton supporters, during convention week so he can move on to older voters and blue-collar voters after Labor Day."

"Women. However, all of the groups are an important ingredient to his success. And he must do a better job at recruiting them."

We also asked prominent bloggers to answer this question.

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