By The Numbers: A Boost From Michelle

Dem Insiders View Mrs. Obama As An Asset To Her Husband's Campaign

by James A. Barnes and Peter Bell

Monday, Aug. 25, 2008


Democratic Party Insiders overwhelmingly expect Michelle Obama will be an asset to her husband, Barack Obama, in the fall presidential campaign, according to a National Journal Insider survey. A national television audience will see if she lives up to that expectation when she takes center stage at the Pepsi Center tonight to speak on behalf of her husband.

Bloggers PollNational Journal has invited top bloggers to join in its survey of insiders for the Democratic and Republican conventions.

Fifty-two of the 75 Insiders surveyed said they believe Mrs. Obama will help her husband's candidacy in the general election, while only 20 said she would hurt it. Another three said that Obama would help among some voting blocs and hurt among others, or have no significant impact at all on the presidential race. (A list of Democratic Insiders is published in morning editions of National Journal's Convention Daily.)

"Michelle's deprecating humor can make her husband seem more like a real person than a celebrity," said one Insider. "When America gets to know Michelle they will love her," said another. "She is smart, honest, direct a woman of integrity."

A spouse has unique credibility as someone who can personally testify to the character of the candidate. "Her speech about Barack will be personal, funny and very endearing," predicted one Insider.

Although the Obama family has appeared on television talk shows and has been fodder for glossy magazine cover stories since the Illinois senator locked up the Democratic nomination, the prime-time speech that Michelle Obama will deliver tonight is seen as an important moment for her to bolster her image and perhaps soften her reputation for being cold and calculating.

"As most Americans really don't know her, she has a wonderful opportunity to be a help," said one Insider. "It is up to her. The convention is her first real opportunity to make it or break it."

Another Insider said Obama would "probably help" her husband's candidacy. "It depends entirely on her speech at the convention -- a lot [is] riding on it," this Insider said.

Obama's confident and at times assertive personality does not always fit the traditional mold of presidential spouse, observed one Insider: "It will be unfair how she will be treated, but the sad truth is a strong woman with her own views of the world does not comport with the Laura Bush/Barbara Bush First Flower paradigm."

Another Insider was more pointed, saying, "You can only muzzle a loose cannon for so long."

Michelle Obama has stumbled before. Campaigning in Wisconsin in February, when her husband was on a roll, Obama said that "for the first time in my adult life I am really proud of my country. Not just because Barack is doing well, but I think people are hungry for change."

Later, both Obamas maintained her remarks were misconstrued by some who felt they were self-serving. "What I was clearly talking about was that I'm proud in how Americans are engaging in the political process," said Michelle Obama.

Still, her initial remark lives on, even somewhat inaccurately. "It will be hard to recover from the 'never been proud of country' remark," said one Insider.

With that background it is no surprise that some Insiders believe Obama is a probably mixed political blessing for her husband. "Maybe helps if she talks to women, hurts if she talks to white guys," said one Insider.

Tonight, Michelle Obama won't have that luxury.

We also asked prominent bloggers to answer this question.

Democratic Political Insiders: Karen Ackerman, Jill Alper, David Axelrod, Brad Bannon, Dave Beattie, Andy Bechhoefer, Cornell Belcher, Mitchell W. Berger, Mike Berman, Donna Brazile, Mark Brewer, Ed Bruley, George Bruno, Deb Callahan, Bonnie Campbell, Bill Carrick, Martin J. Chavez, Tony Coelho, Jim Craig, Jerry Crawford, Stephanie Cutter, Jeff Danielson, Peter Daou, Jim Demers, Tad Devine, Debbie Dingell, Monica Dixon, Michael Donilon, Tom Donilon, Anita Dunn, Jeff Eller, Steve Elmendorf, Carter Eskew, Eric Eve, Vic Fazio, Peter Fenn, Scott Ferson, Gordon Fischer, Tina Flournoy, Don Foley, Don Fowler, Gina Glantz, Joe Grandmaison, Anna Greenberg, Stan Greenberg, Pat Griffin, Michael Gronstal, Marcia Hale, Paul Harstad, Laura Hartigan, Mike Henry, Leo Hindery, Jr., Harold Ickes, Marcus Jadotte, John Jameson, Steve Jarding, Jonathon Jones, Jim Jordan, Gale Kaufman, Shar Knutson, Kam Kuwata, Celinda Lake, David Lang, Sylvia Larsen, Jeff Link, Bill Lynch, Steve Marchand, Jim Margolis, Paul Maslin, Terry McAuliffe, Caroline McCarley, Susan McCue, Gerald McEntee, Tom McMahon, Phil McNamara, David Medina, Mark Mellman, John Merrigan, Steve Murphy, Janet Napolitano, David Nassar, Marcia Nichols, John Norris, Tom Ochs, Tom O'Donnell, Scott Parven, Jeffrey Peck, Debora Pignatelli, John Podesta, Tony Podesta, Bruce Reed, Mame Reiley, Steve Ricchetti, Susan Rice, Will Robinson, Steve Rosenthal, David Rudd, John Ryan, Wendy Sherman, Terry Shumaker, Phil Singer, Bob Slagle, Erik Smith, Doug Sosnik, Darry Sragow, Karl Struble, Katrina Swett, Sarah Swisher, Eric Tabor, Jeffrey Trammell, Ed Turlington, Mike Veon, Rick Wiener, Bridgette Williams, JoDee Winterhof and Jim Zogby.

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