HOUSE RACE HOTLINE EXTRA

Offensive Maneuvers

Thu. May 1, 2008


For the past few weeks, Republicans have been looking at the possibility of losing two House seats in their base, the Deep South. But recently, Republicans appear to have halted the Democrats' Southern invasion.

What is this silver bullet? It's Sen. Barack Obama, D-Ill. Republicans are using ads to link Obama to both Democrats in special elections in Mississippi's 1st District and Louisiana's 6th District, and, apparently, it's helping to stem the Democratic tide.

It started in Louisiana April 22, when the National Republican Congressional Committee began airing an ad linking Obama and House Speaker Pelosi to state Democratic Rep. Don Cazayoux. The media quickly picked up on the ad as the first to link Obama to a House Democratic candidate, and other Republican-leaning outside groups followed with similar ads.

While there's not much reliable polling to confirm the strategy has worked, Woody Jenkins, the GOP nominee in the district and 1996 Senate nominee, points to internal polling that shows him with a lead. That would be a change, as even many Republican polls had showed him trailing for much of the race.

But even with a lack of polling information, Republicans believe they've found the perfect antidote for Democratic attempts to steal both of these Republican-leaning districts. Why? Because for the first time since the Mississippi and Louisiana campaigns started, both Democrats are on the defensive.

In Mississippi, Prentiss County Chancery Clerk Travis Childers didn't respond well at all when he was confronted with TV ads claiming that he'd been endorsed by Obama. At first he ignored the topic, and then he denied that Obama backed his candidacy at all, even though there was proof to the contrary.

Cazayoux has avoided the subject as well. He's chosen to hit back hard against attacks on his healthcare record, but doesn't like to talk about the presidential contest. Instead, he talks about his centrist positions and endorsement from former Sen. John Breaux, D-La.

Both Cazayoux's avoidance and Childers' missteps have helped perpetuate the attacks against both candidates. Neither has found a good answer to the charges, and they'll need to if they want to win these districts.

The problem for both candidates is that this race is now about them and the "D" after their name. Before Republicans began bringing up the Democrats' ties to Obama, the race was focused on the two Republicans and their problems. Cazayoux and Childers were conservative enough to be acceptable. Now, with both contests about party, and not personality, it's a different race.

If Jenkins wins in Louisiana's special election this weekend, it'll be an upset. Many analysts have put their money on the conservative Cazayoux, and Jenkins' considerable baggage makes him an underdog. But a Jenkins win would have a big validating effect on this Obama strategy for Republicans.

If Jenkins does win, look for Republicans to take the strategy nationwide. But will it work there?

The problem is, besides a few contests in the South, most of the other competitive races are in marginal districts, or places where Obama will play well.

Republicans' biggest weak spot is in its 18 competitive open seats. In those 18, only seven are even remotely Republican enough to have an anti-Obama ad work.

But while the strategy might not work in those open seats, Republicans might find success in another area.

Early in the cycle, NRCC Chairman Tom Cole of Oklahoma touted the 61 Democratic-controlled districts President Bush won in 2004 as the place where Republicans would make many of their gains in a presidential election season. But as the cycle progressed, many of those targets fell off the list, as Republicans were forced to defend more and more open seats.

If Republicans are successful in Mississippi and Louisiana with their Obama strategy, then this area again gets another look. And the most fertile of those districts would be in the 20 held by Democratic freshmen.

Some of those freshmen are already bedeviled by the presidential contest. Pennsylvania Democratic Reps. Jason Altmire and Chris Carney have gone to great lengths to deny they support anyone in the Democratic primary. In fact, just six of the 20 frosh have endorsed anyone in the presidential contest.

But linking Obama with vulnerable Democrats will not be a cure-all for Republican problems. The party still is operating in an environment that is almost as toxic as it was in 2006.

And let's not get carried away. If Republicans do hang onto the Mississippi and Louisiana seats, it's no great accomplishment. Bush handily won the districts in 2004 and 2000, and no one seriously thought Democrats could flip these districts. The fact they came so close is a testament to how bad the Republican environment is.

But if it does work, it will save the party the embarrassment of losing two Republican-dominated districts in the South. And in turn, that'll stanch the bloodletting that started after the party lost the special election in Illinois to replace former Speaker Dennis Hastert.

Furthermore, it could give Republicans a renewed focus in some districts where their attention had drifted away. And for a change, they would be on offense.

by Tim Sahd

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