"I may not have always done what was popular in the moment, but you can be damn sure I have always done what I thought was right." Bold words from a governor who is in big trouble in his quest for re-election this year.

Gov. Jon Corzine of New Jersey made that declaration in his budget address to the state Legislature last week. The Democrat is running 9 points behind the most likely Republican nominee, former U.S. Attorney Christopher Christie, in two different polls of New Jersey voters. A Quinnipiac University poll shows Christie leading 46 percent to 37 percent, and a Fairleigh Dickinson University PublicMind poll has Christie ahead 41 percent to 32 percent. Christie racks up strong showings even though 61 percent of New Jersey voters polled by Quinnipiac say they have no opinion of him.

When they get angry, they get unpredictable.

The New Jersey contest is this year's marquee race because it features an incumbent running for re-election in a big state. Next year, 36 states will elect governors. When the president is not on the ballot, voters usually take out their frustrations on governors: They are in charge.

Right now, the "Jersey boys" are not happy. Most state voters say that Corzine does not deserve to be re-elected. Only 40 percent approve of the job he is doing.

Are New Jersey voters turning against Democrats in general? Apparently not. Last month, 65 percent said they approved of the job President Obama is doing.

The New Jersey economy is lousy, just like the economy is everywhere else. In his budget speech, Corzine announced some tough proposals, just like many other governors are doing. His plan includes spending cuts; a wage freeze and furloughs for state employees; elimination of the property-tax deduction on state income taxes for everyone but seniors; higher taxes on cigarettes and alcohol; and an income-tax hike for the wealthiest 1 percent of residents.

Some of Corzine's problems are unique to him. He's a Wall Street multimillionaire, a former chief executive officer of Goldman Sachs. That resume meant "financial whiz" when Corzine got elected. Now Wall Street has a tarnished image, which Corzine is eager to shake. Last year, in an economic discussion with then-candidate Barack Obama, Corzine said, "The tax structure in this country is making it easier for my old friends on Wall Street to do really well, while the middle class is under enormous, enormous pressure."

We often get a wave of anti-incumbent voting when times are tough. That's what happened in the recession of the early 1990s. In the 1990 midterm, when the economy was beginning to sour under President George H.W. Bush, Republicans lost seats in Congress and Democrats lost governorships.

Elected officials got another ominous sign that year: Congressional incumbents of both parties saw their share of the vote go down, on average.

That rarely happens. Usually, if one party's vote declines, the other party's rises. The falloff in support for both parties suggested a discontented electorate.

That discontent broke into the open in 1992. Bush was thrown out of office. Bill Clinton was elected, but with only 43 percent of the vote. Americans expressed their anger not just by voting out the president but also by giving 19 percent of their votes to Ross Perot, who ran as an independent.

It was a year when outsiders were in, "the Year of the Woman." Voters sent five new women to the Senate and 24 to the House, the largest increase ever.

When times are bad, voters get angry. When they get angry, they get unpredictable. They look for political outsiders. Independents and third-party candidates suddenly emerge. Incumbents of both parties are vulnerable.

In a widely publicized incident in 2007, Gov. Corzine was seriously injured when the state vehicle he was riding in crashed while he was not wearing a seat belt. Corzine later made a public service ad in which he said, "I have to live with my mistake. You don't. Buckle up."

Corzine could pass on that advice to a lot of other governors running for re-election next year: Buckle up. It's going to be a bumpy ride.

This article appeared in the Saturday, March 21, 2009 edition of National Journal.

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