Barack Obama enters the presidency riding an unprecedented wave of goodwill.

Unprecedented? At least for the past 30 years. Three-quarters of Americans in a post-election CNN/Opinion Research poll expressed a favorable opinion of Obama. That's higher than the favorable ratings for Bush I and Bush II when they were presidents-elect. It's higher than Bill Clinton's just after he was elected in 1992.

The only newly elected president who came close to Obama was Ronald Reagan, who won in similar circumstances in 1980: a wave of public discontent, an economic crisis, a foreign-policy predicament. And a political movement behind him. About Obama, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said, "This president goes into office with more expectations than any president I can remember in my lifetime."

Two-thirds or more believe that as president Obama is likely to advance race relations, improve economic conditions, stabilize the financial markets, cut taxes for most Americans, and protect the country from terrorism. Obama already has his top economic team in place, and he has begun to lay out a recovery plan. How long before people start expecting to see results?

The president-elect is encouraging people to be realistic. "We are facing a crisis of historic proportions," Obama said at the press conference announcing his economic team last week. He is not promising a quick fix. "The economy is likely to get worse before it gets better," he cautioned. "Full recovery will not happen immediately."

That message may be getting through. Just before the election, according to an ABC News poll, 50 percent of likely voters thought Obama would be able to do a lot to improve the economy. That number has dropped a bit, to 44 percent. As people see the magnitude of the problem, they may give the new president some breathing room. How much?

"The economy is likely to get worse before it gets better."

Here, too, President Reagan's experience may be relevant. No sooner did Reagan take office than the economy began to get a lot worse. Unemployment jumped to nearly 11 percent, the highest level since the 1930s. The current unemployment rate is about 6.5 percent.

By 1982, voters were becoming anxious. Republicans lost 26 House seats in the midterm election. President Reagan's response? "We can do it, my fellow Americans, by staying the course," he said in October 1982.

A lot of voters did stay the course because they believed that Reagan had defined a course. By 1984, their confidence paid off. "It's morning again in America," a campaign ad for Reagan's re-election declared. "Today, more men and women will go to work than ever before in our country's history."

When does the public expect things to turn around this time? Certainly by the end of Obama's first term. In the CNN poll, 76 percent said they expect conditions in the country to be better four years from now. Obama himself has set an earlier deadline. He has pledged to create or save 2.5 million jobs in the next two years.

President-elect Obama seems to be channeling Reagan's optimism. "While we can't underestimate the challenges we face," Obama said at his November 24 press conference, "we also can't underestimate our capacity to overcome them -- to summon that spirit of determination and optimism that has always defined us."

More important, Obama has to rally the public behind his plan. Jump-starting the economy will require "a bold plan to make the investments in the future," Obama said on November 25. No president can ask people to "stay the course" unless they're confident that he has defined a course. But, unlike Reagan, Obama has resisted defining an ideological course. "What the American people want more than anything else is just common sense, smart government," Obama said. "They don't want ideology.... People don't want to continue a budget argument about big government or small government."

Obama's movement is different from the conservative movement that Reagan rode to power. Personal loyalty defines it. When challenged to explain how he would offer change when he was naming so many Clinton administration officials to his economic team, Obama responded with a telling comment: "Understand where the vision for change comes from first and foremost. It comes from me."

This article appeared in the Saturday, December 6, 2008 edition of National Journal.

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