Was Barack Obama's political victory one year ago a political movement or a political moment? We may get an indication next month when Virginia and New Jersey vote for governor.

Democrats hold the governorships in both states. So if both vote Republican on November 3, it will send a powerful message. And it will point toward the possibility of a GOP comeback in 2010.

But keep in mind that contrarian voting is nothing new for Virginia and New Jersey. In the past five gubernatorial elections, going back to 1989, the two states have voted the same way -- for Democrats in 1989, 2001, and 2005 and for Republicans in 1993 and 1997. In every one of those elections, both states voted for the party that had just lost the White House. (In Virginia, the record of counter-national voting goes back to 1977.)

The Democrats have a ready argument if they lose both elections this year: That's what Virginia and New Jersey have been doing for at least 20 years. Does it presage anything? Sometimes. The 1989 Democratic sweep in Virginia and New Jersey portended Bill Clinton's White House victory in 1992. The twin Republican victories in 1993 presaged the Democratic debacle of 1994. Democratic wins in the two states in 2005 pointed toward 2006 and 2008. But the Democrats won Virginia and New Jersey in 2001 -- just after 9/11 -- and that portended nothing.

If Democrats win in both states next month, they can claim to have broken the pattern. It would certainly shock Republicans, who have been feeling increasingly confident, even buoyant, about the 2010 elections. But they, too, would have a ready argument about why voters supported the incumbent party: local circumstances.

In New Jersey, a Democratic governor with an immense personal fortune is spending whatever it takes to demolish his opponent. Plus, an independent candidate is splitting the anti-incumbent vote.

In Virginia, circumstances include a damaging graduate school thesis written by the Republican candidate 20 years ago in which he attacked working women, gays, "cohabitors," and "fornicators." A sure way to offend many women and young voters.

The Republican argument will be, "No national implications here, folks. Move right along."

The most likely outcome may be a split decision. Virginia elects Republican Bob McDonnell, who has been leading in all of the polls, and New Jersey re-elects Democrat Jon Corzine, who has recently caught up to his Republican opponent and may be narrowly ahead. What would that mean?

The easiest explanation is a return to normalcy. Both states voted for Obama last year. But New Jersey has been reliably Democratic in presidential elections since 1988. Virginia has voted consistently Republican since 1964 -- until last year.

Would a split decision carry any message for the White House? Here's something else surprising: President Obama is still popular in both states. New Jersey voters give Obama a 62 percent job-approval rating in a New York Times poll. Virginia voters give Obama 53 percent approval in a Washington Post poll (the same level of support as his vote in 2008).

In New Jersey, Corzine has embraced Obama on billboards and in ads, and he has been making gains among Obama supporters, according to the Fairleigh Dickinson University survey. Corzine comes out slightly ahead even when polls present a straight two-way choice without naming the independent candidate.

In Virginia, Democrat Creigh Deeds spent most of the campaign keeping his distance from Obama. Asked if he was an Obama Democrat, Deeds said he was "a Creigh Deeds Democrat." He told reporters, "Frankly, a lot of what's going on in Washington has made it very tough. We had a very tough August because people were just uncomfortable with the spending."

The core of the Obama movement was African-American, young, and independent voters. In Virginia, none of these groups is showing much enthusiasm for Deeds. The Post poll shows the African-American share of the Virginia vote dropping from 20 percent last year to 12 percent this year, and young voters dropping from 21 to 8 percent.

Obama will make a last-minute campaign swing for Deeds next week. He will be trying to do something that Deeds has been unwilling or unable to do: Reignite the Obama political movement.

This article appeared in the Saturday, October 24, 2009 edition of National Journal.

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