Will white voters support Barack Obama? Yes and no.

Kentucky Democratic voters were nearly 90 percent white. On May 20, Obama got blown out in Kentucky, losing to Hillary Rodham Clinton by 35 points. Oregon Democratic voters were also overwhelmingly white. On the same day, Obama carried Oregon by 18 points.

There is no such thing as a typical white voter. How Obama fares among white voters depends on which ones you are talking about. What the primaries have shown is continuing resistance to Obama among blue-collar and Appalachian whites.

About one in five Kentucky Democrats said that race was a factor in their vote. They went 81 percent for Clinton. Sounds like race was driving their vote. But nearly 80 percent of Kentucky voters said that race was not a factor. They favored Clinton, too, by a solid 26-point margin. Something else was driving their vote.

Obama doesn't have big differences with Clinton on issues or ideology. But there are big differences of style and temperament. Clinton comes across as a fighter. "We are in this race because we believe America is worth fighting for," she said in Louisville. "This continues to be a tough fight. And I have fought it the only way I know how--with determination, by never giving up and never giving in."

Obama is running as a conciliator and a consensus-builder. He told an audience in Montana, "We should not just talk to our friends. We should be willing to engage our enemies as well. That's what diplomacy is all about."

Democrats have had a problem when they have nominated candidates who are not seen as tough guys: George McGovern, who was "a thousand percent" behind his initial running mate. Michael Dukakis riding in a tank. John Kerry, who said he was for spending the $87 billion before he was against it.

Republicans think they can exploit the same weakness in Obama. Last week, presumptive GOP nominee John McCain told supporters, "Senator Obama is naive enough to believe that if he sits across the table from Raul Castro or from [Mahmoud] Ahmadinejad, that they will be able to work things out."

Blue-collar voters and Appalachian whites tend to favor a more combative style of politics. Sen. Jim Webb, D-Va., has written about the Scots-Irish heritage of Appalachia, a vast region stretching from Pennsylvania to Alabama, where Obama has done poorly in the Democratic primaries. Webb describes Appalachian voters as tough, pugnacious, and self-reliant. The title of Webb's 2004 book is Born Fighting: How the Scots-Irish Shaped America.

Obama is betting that most voters are fed up with all of the fighting and want to try something different for a "change." That message is bringing him impressive support from young voters and from affluent, well-educated whites. But it is creating problems for him with other constituencies.

A Quinnipiac University poll of three swing states--Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania--asked voters to choose between Clinton and McCain and between Obama and McCain. The survey found Clinton leading McCain in Ohio and Florida (by 7 points in each state). The poll also shows Obama trailing McCain in Ohio and Florida (by 4 points). Both Democrats lead McCain in Pennsylvania, but Clinton's edge is bigger (13 points, compared with 6 for Obama).

In general election matchups with McCain, the biggest difference between the two Democrats is the support they get from blue-collar whites. In Ohio, Clinton gets 45 percent of the vote among non-college-educated white voters. Obama gets 33 percent. Among college-educated whites, Clinton and Obama do about the same. Florida? Obama does 12 points worse than Clinton among working-class whites. Among college-educated whites, they do about the same. Pennsylvania? Same story. Obama does 10 points worse than Clinton among working-class whites. They do about the same among college-educated whites.

Is there a state where Obama looks stronger than Clinton? Yes, California. A poll by the Public Policy Institute of California shows Clinton leading McCain by 12 points in California and Obama leading McCain by 17, even though Clinton beat Obama by nearly 10 points in the Golden State's primary.

California is certainly an important state, but it is not usually regarded as a swing state. Obama's weakness in the swing states is what has many Democrats concerned.

This article appeared in the Saturday, May 31, 2008 edition of National Journal.

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