The disproportionate exposure for the chamber's Democrats is very clear. But can Republicans capitalize on their opportunities? Read more »

Markey is clearly underperforming, but is it bad enough to allow for an upset in an extremely Democratic state? Read more »

These key indicators will help ascertain whether either party is facing an undertow. Read more »

Red-faced Republicans, circling and preparing to pounce on a second-term Democratic president they loathe, do not respect, and certainly do not fear. Sound familiar? Perhaps reminiscent of Bill Clinton’s second term, after the Monica Lewinsky story broke? During that time, Republicans became so consumed by their hatred of Clinton and their conviction that this event would bring him down that they convinced themselves the rest of the country was just as outraged by his behavior as they were. By the way, what was Clinton’s lowest Gallup job-approval rating in his second term, throughout the travails of investigations and impeachment? It was 53 percent. The conservative echo machine had worked itself into such a frenzy, the GOP didn’t realize that the outrage was largely confined to the ranks of those who never voted for Clinton anyway. Read more »

President Obama and his administration now find themselves in the middle of not one but two tough situations: the tragic killing of four Americans at a U.S. diplomatic mission in Benghazi, and the Internal Revenue Service’s scrutiny of tea-party and other conservative groups. At best, they are cases of bad mishandling and embarrassment; at worst, they rise to the level of legitimate and consequential scandals. At this point, the significance of each is more in the eye of the beholder. Liberals and Democrats tend to de-emphasize both affairs, while many conservatives and Republicans think that each rises to the level of impeachment. It will take time to know which end of this ridiculously broad spectrum of assessments proves to be more accurate. Read more »

Here’s a prediction: If not on Tuesday night, then certainly by Wednesday and maybe even through Thursday or beyond, one party will be crowing that its victory in the special election for now-Sen. Tim Scott’s former seat in South Carolina’s 1st Congressional District is a sign that it is doing great and will have a successful 2014 midterm election. The other party will be downplaying the national significance of the special election, declaring that the results have nothing whatsoever to do with what happens next year. Read more »

One of the truest things ever written about politics is something that renowned Yale political scientist Edward Tufte wrote in his 1978 classic, Political Control of the Economy,  “When you think economics, think elections; when you think elections, think economics.” One way or another, the state and direction of the U.S. economy strongly affects the political debate and the contours of national elections. Read more »

This early in the 2014 congressional midterm-election cycle, it’s impossible to know what the election will be about—whether there will be a wind in favor of either party and, if so, what the velocity and impact will be. Recently, we have had three back-to-back wave elections, with 2006 and 2008 in favor of Democrats and 2010 benefiting Republicans. While 2012 cannot really be considered a wave, the election did display certain dynamics that benefited Democrats—at least in national races, although not in gubernatorial ones. Read more »

For liberals, Democrats, and others to argue that Social Security and Medicare should not be touched in any way sends the message that we are just going to run up the tab and send the bill to the millennial and subsequent generations. Read more »

There are competing theories on what the 2014 elections’ dominant theme will be. But for the next few months, it’s smarter to wait and see. Read more »