It’s too early to know for sure what the fallout will be from the fight over the Obama administration’s proposed—and, more recently, compromised—requirement for religiously affiliated institutions to provide health insurance that covers contraception. A week ago, before the flap, a string of positive economic news had helped Obama reach a 49 percent Gallup job-approval rating. There was 45 percent disapproval in the Feb. 6-8 Gallup three-night moving average, his highest Gallup approval rating since mid-June. In the next few days, Gallup tracks reported approves-disapproves of 48 to 46 percent for both Feb. 7-9 and 8-10. Then, about the time the controversy erupted, Obama’s approval dropped three points to 45 approving, with 48 disapproving in the Feb. 9-11 track. On Monday, Gallup reported 46 percent approving, with 47 percent disapproving in its Feb. 10-12 rating. The approval was up a point, and disapproval dropped one. With nightly tracking, it’s always prudent to watch for several days before drawing a conclusion. But the latest numbers suggest that Obama took a hit, although it’s hardly a free-fall.

Last Friday’s drop in the unemployment rate from 8.5 to 8.3 percent marked the fifth consecutive month of declines in the jobless rate. This decline adds to a growing body of evidence that there are some subtle but important shifting sands in the 2012 election. The broader “U-6” index adds up the percentage of unemployed people with those working part-time who want full-time work, and with those who have given up looking at all. This number has dropped for four consecutive months from 16.4 percent in September to 15.1 percent today. It is still a horrifically high rate but headed in the right direction. As the economic-consulting firm ISI Group has noted, last week marked the 18th consecutive week of more positive than negative economic news. As a result, polls show an increase in the number of Americans saying the country is headed in the right direction, while the number of those who say it is off on the wrong track are in decline.

Unless the polling over the last few days in Florida is completely wrong, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney has turned back former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s second resurgence. Republican officeholders can now step back off the ledge. When they heard Democratic pollster Peter Hart telling NBC News that a Gingrich nomination might trigger another 1964 Goldwater debacle, it was enough to send many to the bar at the Capitol Hill Club. But a larger question is now rising: Have the 2012 elections reached a tipping point?

As President Obama strides to the podium in the House chamber on Tuesday night, he might have a bit more spring in his step than a few weeks ago. The question on his mind, though, is the same as many others have: “What in the hell is going on in the Republican Party?”

When one party has 23 Senate seats up for grabs and the other party has just 10, the side with more than twice as much exposure starts off with an enormous disadvantage. Nobody envies the predicament that Senate Democrats are in—clinging to a narrow 53-47 majority and defending seven open seats, while Republicans are defending just two. The Cook Political Report’s Senate expert, Jennifer Duffy, defines four critical races as “epic battles.” The outcome of this foursome will determine whether Senate Democrats will just have a bad night in November, holding their majority by the narrowest of margins, or a disastrous one, losing their majority before polls are even closed in some states.

Unless pollsters are all accidentally calling voters in other state, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney is headed toward a fairly big victory in the New Hampshire Republican primary Tuesday. 

The Gallup national tracking poll and various public and private polls conducted in Iowa indicate that the bloom is coming off former House Speaker Newt Gingrich’s rose, just as it did for Rep. Michele Bachmann, Texas Gov. Rick Perry, and former Godfather’s Pizza CEO Herman Cain before him.

Last time I checked, the final Republican presidential primaries were scheduled for June. In fact, my favorite resource for primary and caucus dates, Frontloading HQ, shows California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, and North Dakota all slated for June 5. Ohio and Utah are scheduled for June 12 and 26, respectively. (Many think that Ohio date may end up sooner.) But in this new over-caffeinated cable- and blog-driven campaign-media culture, one would never know that the nomination will not be settled in three weeks. Between now and final primaries, there will be more than 150 mornings of daily newspaper front pages and evenings of nightly news programs. The temptation to extrapolate the end result from whatever seems to be happening today seems to be pervasive.

Forty years ago, high-end computer and audiotape manufacturer Memorex ran a classic television ad in which jazz great Ella Fitzgerald sings a high note and shatters a wine glass. Then her taped music plays with glass-shattering crystal clarity, and an announcer asks, “Is it live, or is it Memorex?”

On Friday at 8:30 a.m., the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release the November unemployment figures. Like many other economic statistics and poll numbers, their impact on 2012 may now seem theoretical or hypothetical. But with the general election less than 12 months away, they are becoming more and more relevant.