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House Race Rankings

House Race Hotline's Tim Sahd provides a regularly updated list of which House seats are most likely to switch party control in November based on a number of factors, including organization, money, buzz and polling.

Our latest, and last, list of rankings tells you everything you need to know about the dire situation the GOP faces this coming Tuesday. Forty-eight of the top 55 most vulnerable seats are held by the GOP, and we're predicting a Dem pickup of 24-34 seats.

We've been through several ups and downs the last few months. Before the GOP convention, predictions of a 20+ loss were prevalent. Then, the Sarah Palin VP pick, as well as a rejuvenated GOP base, gave the party hope that it could potentially hold its losses to the low double-digits. But as the economic crisis ramped up, the floor fell out for the GOP, and it now faces what many would consider a worst-case scenario.

Dems are careful to downplay predictions from some that the party could pick up 40 seats. But by focusing their sights on what were considered solid GOP seats -- like in W.V.-02 (Shelley Moore Capito) and S.C.-01 (Henry Brown) -- they're also sparking talk that this could be a historic night for the party.

Last updated: Oct. 30, 2008 • Senate Rankings

Rank	District	Incumbent/Party	Previous
1	New York-13	Open Seat (R)	1
2	New York-25	Open Seat (R)	2
3	Arizona-01	Open Seat (R)	3
4	Virginia-11	Open Seat (R)	4
4	If Republicans manage to hold any of these seats, it means that the party will have escaped a second wave election. Even if the GOP doesn't have a disastrous night, though, these are all still likely to be losses on Nov. 4.
5	Florida-16	Tim Mahoney (D)	5
5	He's back... Mahoney, after being ditched by his media consultant following reports that he promised a job to his mistress at the firm, has found a new consultant and is back on the air. But there are few things he can say now to turn the ugly dynamics of this race back in his direction. Tom Rooney (R), meanwhile, has just begun airing his own TV ads after being dark for several weeks, and is the GOP's best bet to take down a Dem seat.
6	Illinois-11	Open Seat (R)	7
6	In perhaps the final nail in the coffin, the DCCC has begun airing a TV ad tying Martin Ozinga (R) to troubled Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D). How'd they make that connection? Ozinga gave Blagojevich a $10K campaign donation in '05. Ouch.
7	Ohio-16	Open Seat (R)	8
7	The NRCC's silence is deafening. The committee hasn't spent a cent here, which should tell you everything you need to know about state Sen. Kirk Schuring's (R) chances against state Sen. John Boccieri (D).
8	Texas-22	Nick Lampson (D)	6
8	If you believe a Zogby poll, Pete Olson (R) is up 17 percent. If you believe Lampson's internals, the race is tied -- at 42 percent. Either way, it feels like a "pick your poison" kind of situation for Lampson. Sitting at 42 percent a week before the election isn't a safe place for a Dem in a hugely GOP district. A new DCCC ad accusing Olson of voter fraud will have to work wonders if Lampson's going to pull this one out.
9	Alaska-At Large	Don Young (R)	14
9	Before Sen. Ted Stevens (R) was found guilty on seven felony counts earlier this week, there was a glimmer of hope for Don Young. Amazingly, even as he was under indictment, Stevens ran even with his Dem opponent in the Senate race. Young trailed Ethan Berkowitz (D) by a significant margin earlier in this race, but as Stevens' numbers rose, so did Young's. It was within the realm of possibility for Young to pull off the upset before the Stevens guilty verdict. But Young's fate is likely tied to Stevens', and that's bad news for the 17-term congressman.
10	Florida-24	Tom Feeney (R)	9
10	The NRCC saw the writing on the wall and pulled the plug on this race late last week, but Feeney's not going down without a fight; he's aired some pretty inflammatory TV ads against Suzanne Kosmas (D). But it doesn't seem likely that any attacks against Kosmas at this point will work.
11	New Jersey-03	Open Seat (R)	10
11	This race is tricky. Republicans like Medford Mayor Chris Myers (R), and they've gotten several gifts in the form of corruption-related scandals from the Dem-controlled legislature, to which Myers' camp tried to link state Sen. John Adler (D). But the Dem nature of this district may ultimately give Adler the win.
12	Colorado-04	Marilyn Musgrave (R)	11
12	Musgrave, now without the aid of the NRCC, is airing a new TV ad that shows an actress -- playing the part of Betsy Markey (D) -- hooked up to a lie detector. Yes, it's that desperate for Musgrave.
13	Michigan-09	Joe Knollenberg (R)	20
13	This is another race where the NRCC has stopped spending its precious resources, following John McCain's decision to abandon the state. Oakland Co. held the key to a McCain win, and several polls have shown Obama with a firm grip there. That spells very bad news down the ballot for Knollenberg, who has not fared well at all in recent polling. Gary Peters (D) is the odds-on favorite here.
14	New Jersey-07	Open Seat (R)	12
14	This CD is in the same boat for Republicans as its neighbor to the south, N.J.-03, except that it tilts a tad more to the GOP. That is what keeps this race a bit more in play. We're interested to see if Linda Stender (D) can finally shake the "Stender the Spender" moniker, as Leonard Lance's (R) camp has been pushing it hard. Late polling has shown this race tilting towards Stender, but the NRCC has been much more active, at least on TV, than they are in N.J.-03. We'll see if it makes a difference.
15	Minnesota-06	Michele Bachmann (R)	15
15	Last week was not a good one for Bachmann. Elwyn Tinklenberg (DFL) raised nearly $1.5M on her ill-advised "Hardball" comments, and Bachmann was forced to air a TV ad that sort of apologized for her remarks. But it's not over yet in this GOP-leaning CD. Bachmann is a good campaigner and has sufficient funds (even though the NRCC independent expenditure arm cut her off) to run ads wall-to-wall through Election Day. She's down, but certainly not out.
16	Pennsylvania-11	Paul Kanjorski (D)	13
16	Time's running out for Kanjorski. He hasn't led in any publicly-released polls except those sponsored by the DCCC, and hasn't gotten any late mo' from newspaper endorsements, as Lou Barletta (R) has collected all of those. Is the Dem nature of this CD -- where Obama is primed to do surprisingly well -- enough to save him?
17	Ohio-15	Open Seat (R)	18
17	A poll conducted for Mary Jo Kilroy (D) puts her firmly in control with a 46-37 percent lead, and the anecdotal evidence of high early voting turnout at Ohio State Univ. doesn't bode well for Steve Stivers (R). He's run a good race, though, and can bank on the fact that Kilroy still has high negatives from her '06 run. But will new voters care? Do they even know who Kilroy or Stivers are beyond the party IDs? If not, that doesn't bode well for Stivers, as Obama is likely to win this district fairly comfortably.
18	New Mexico-01	Open Seat (R)	16
18	The NRCC was forced to divert funding from this contest early on, and has yet to put any cash in. With N.M. trending more and more toward Obama, and with the DCCC dumping over $500K into TV ads for Martin Heinrich (D) just this week, Darren White (R) is pretty much sitting on an island. We said earlier in the cycle that if this race is about biography, White wins, but if it's about the national dynamics, Heinrich wins. It's looking more and more like the latter.
19	Minnesota-03	Open Seat (R)	17
19	The NRCC has had to scale back here, too, but still has put over $300K into the district on behalf of Erik Paulsen (R). But Ashwin Madia (DFL) has held his own, and late polls show him with a slim advantage. That, combined with the fact that trends in this suburban Minneapolis/St. Paul district are moving strongly toward Obama, does not bode well for a Paulsen comeback.
20	Nevada-03	Jon Porter (R)	19
20	There's been some Dem griping that Porter's ad campaign is putting a serious dent in Dina Titus' (D) armor and she's not hitting him back hard enough. But will this matter? Early voting numbers suggest that Dems are vastly outperforming their registration numbers -- by late this week Dems led Republicans at the polls by a 49-34 margin. A lot of those newly registered Dems may well be Porter voters, as he's run enough times to create his own profile, but if this trend continues, it's going to be very hard to knock Titus off on Election Day.
21	New Mexico-02	Open Seat (R)	29
21	The DCCC has spent over $1.5M in this race so far. The NRCC: $0. Both Harry Teague (D) and Ed Tinsley (R) are self-funders, so cash really isn't a problem, right? Wrong. Tinsley pulled down his ads from broadcast TV last week, and his staff said the money's going into "targeted advertising." We guess that means cable or radio, but either way, it's not a good sign for Tinsley in a race he has never led.
22	North Carolina-08	Robin Hayes (R)	25
22	Polls had already shown a shift away from Hayes even before he was forced to apologize for remarks he made at an Oct. 18 McCain rally. The DCCC has had to pull the chronically poor fundraiser Larry Kissell (D) along, and has put over $2.5M into the race. But with Obama showing strength in this heavily black district, Hayes may finally have met his match.
23	Louisiana-06	Don Cazayoux (D)	23
23	Early this fall, Dem polls showed Cazayoux with a very wide lead. But considering the dynamics of this race -- a GOP-leaning district, a strong Republican challenger and a third-party candidate who happens to be a black Democratic state Rep. -- that lead was bound to close. On cue, Bill Cassidy (R) released poll results Oct. 24 showing Cazayoux up, but with just 38 percent. The survey also showed indie Michael Jackson drawing 14 percent. If that number holds for Jackson, it'll be almost impossible for Cazayoux to win.
24	Connecticut-04	Christopher Shays (R)	22
25	Illinois-10	Mark Kirk (R)	39
26	Washington-08	Dave Reichert (R)	33
26	Each of these candidates has done everything you could ask of a Republican who sits in a very bad seat. They've all created their own identities that are separate from the average GOPer, and are able to tout endorsements from groups like LCV and the Sierra Club. That has, in the past, enabled them to withstand bad GOP times. But the Obama surge in all of these districts appears to be taking a toll. Shays and Reichert have both seen their challengers move ahead of them in recent polls, and Kirk has also seen his strength erode as Obama-mania hits Illinois. They've all run good campaigns, but will it be enough?
27	New York-29	Randy Kuhl (R)	27
28	Pennsylvania-03	Phil English (R)	21
29	Florida-08	Ric Keller (R)	24
30	Michigan-07	Tim Walberg (R)	28
31	Alabama-02	Open Seat (R)	30
32	Kentucky-02	Open Seat (R)	48
33	California-04	Open Seat (R)	50
34	Ohio-01	Steve Chabot (R)	26
35	Louisiana-04	Open Seat (R)	31
36	Idaho-01	Bill Sali (R)	34
37	Alabama-05	Open Seat (D)	35
38	Florida-25	Mario Diaz-Balart (R)	41
39	Florida-21	Lincoln Diaz-Balart (R)	42
40	New York-26	Open Seat (R)	37
41	Maryland-01	Open Seat (R)	38
42	Indiana-03	Mark Souder (R)	49
43	Nebraska-02	Lee Terry (R)	43
44	Virginia-02	Thelma Drake (R)	47
45	Missouri-09	Open Seat (R)	36
46	Wyoming-AL	Open Seat (R)	44
47	Wisconsin-08	Steve Kagen (D)	45
48	California-50	Brian Bilbray (R)	--
49	Virginia-05	Virgil Goode (R)	--
50	South Carolina-01	Henry Brown (R)	--
51	Ohio-02	Jean Schmidt (R)	--
52	Missouri-06	Sam Graves (R)	--
53	Arizona-03	John Shadegg (R)	40
54	New Hampshire-01	Carol Shea-Porter (D)	32
55	West Virginia-02	Shelley Moore Capito (R)	--