That race went from 44th most likely to change partisan control to ninth most likely. Why? Here's the Hotline:
[Republican Rep. David] Rivera's campaign has completely imploded over the last few weeks, and the allegations that he secretly financed a Democratic primary campaign this year might be the last straw for the scandal-plagued freshman. Anything can happen in Miami, so we'll keep an eye on the race, but Republicans are barely acknowledging Rivera's existence, much less arguing that he could win reelection.
The other phenomenon that's emerged is that campaign operatives are "firmly convinced of diametrically opposed scenarios in a number of key races." Meaning Republicans think they can pick up solid Democratic seats and Democrats, well, they think the same thing about some Republican-held seats. Need some examples? Check out the rankings here.