Republicans will keep their majority in the House, Reid Wilson opines today. Why? There are five reasons. Wilson's explanations are below.
Redistricting: After taking back the majority in a wave election, a party must protect incumbents who wouldn't have won in an ordinary election. And 2010 produced a bevy of those oddball winners, Republicans swept into office simply by virtue of the party label after their names. ...[snip]Democratic retirements: A new, much more conservative district helped convince North Carolina Reps. Heath Shuler and Brad Miller to abandon plans to run for another term this year. Rep. Joe Donnelly opted for a Senate bid instead of a re-election race in a more Republican seat in Indiana. Disgust with the political system led Rep. Dan Boren, the Oklahoma Democrat, to hang up his spikes. And Arkansas Rep. Mike Ross decided to call his career quits too. ...[snip]Ethics problems: When Nancy Pelosi took over the Speaker's gavel in the 110th Congress, she promised to drain the swamp. But in a body of 435 representatives, bad apples will always float to the surface. ...[snip]Staying on offense: That Democrats would have to spend money in Cicilline's district, which gave President Obama 65 percent of the vote in 2008, speaks to a deeper success Republicans have had. ...[snip]Advertising early: The Obama campaign spent big bucks on early advertisements defining Mitt Romney as a heartless corporate raider who loves to fire people and open offshore bank accounts. ...
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