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Flake's Lead Over Carmona Likely to Narrow Flake's Lead Over Carmona Likely to Narrow

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Politics

Flake's Lead Over Carmona Likely to Narrow

November 8, 2012

GOP Rep. Jeff Flake's win over Democratic former U.S. Surgeon General Richard Carmona was one of just two Republican victories in close Senate races, along with GOP Sen. Dean Heller's win in Nevada. But with reports that over 600,000 early and provisional votes are not yet counted, Carmona's team is closely watching as the ballots count marches on.

Flipping the outcome looks unlikely. Carmona's campaign would need about 55 percent of the outstanding ballots (if all the provisionals get counted) in order to overtake Flake's lead: The congressman currently leads by roughly 80,000 votes, 50.2 percent to 45.4 percent.

Two congressional races have yet to be called due to the high number of ballots that remain uncounted. In Arizona's 2nd District, Democratic Rep. Ron Barber is slightly behind GOP challenger Martha McSally. In the 9th, Democratic nominee Krysten Sinema holds a small lead over Republican Vernon Parker -- and it looks likely the Democrats will prevail in both districts.

Arizona Democrats say they've heard reports that the majority of the provisional ballots were being handed out in predominantly Latino neighborhoods. Exit polls showed 64 percent of non-white voters supporting Carmona.

Arizona law gives the counties 10 days to verify and process the outstanding early and provisional ballots, giving them until the end of next Friday. The next update in the ongoing count comes today at 5:00 p.m. Arizona time.

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