Why House Moderates are an Endangered Species

By Scott Bland  //  October 3, 2012 | 3:46 p.m.

Florida's 18th Congressional District is possibly the quintessential swing district in the United States. Not only did George W. Bush carry the area in 2004 while President Obama won it four years later, but both presidents won it very narrowly and it swung only slightly. Bush won 50.5 percent of the vote in the Treasure Coast seat, slightly below his statewide percentage, and Obama won 51 percent of the vote in the 18th District while winning 52.9 percent statewide.

In summary, it's a consistently even district with a large moderate constituency. Yet it's also home to one of the most nasty, polarizing House races in the country. The campaign between GOP Rep. Allen West and Democrat Patrick Murphy is as nasty as any in the nation, with West recently releasing a TV ad detailing Murphy's arrest for drunken disorderly conduct as a teenager, and Murphy's camp fired back with an ad resurrecting questions about West's military record. What's more, the candidates are running as polar opposites. Though conservative groups have criticized his legislative record, West is a base candidate. And Murphy is a former Republican, but as my colleague Ben Terris wrote earlier this year, he's been happy just to be the anti-West in this campaign.

An item in TCPalm.com today neatly captures how both candidates are playing to their bases. Take a look at their itineraries this week:

Patrick Murphy greeted women's rights advocate Sandra Fluke in Fort Pierce on Sunday and U.S. Rep. Allen West headed to New York City for a fundraiser with Donald Trump on Monday.

Those aren't the schedules of candidates aiming their efforts at the median voter of a split district. Plenty of House candidates are running as moderate members of their parties this year, but it's mostly happening in deep red or blue congressional districts. Rep. Mike McIntyre, D-N.C., is a good example; he's been touting his values, religion and conservatism so aggressively that a Republican operative recently joked that McIntyre should run for chairman of the Republican Study Committee if he's reelected to Congress. John McCain won McIntyre's district with over 57 percent in 2008. In another strong McCain district, Rep. Jim Matheson, D-Utah, reeled off a list of issues he and Mitt Romney agree on at a debate earlier this week. But in more evenly split districts like West's, most candidates appear to be hewing to the party line. To cite one more example, Republican Tony Strickland and Democrat Julia Brownley diverged on nearly every issue in a California 26th District debate last night, though Strickland disavowed elements of the Ryan budget. A lot of moderates from moderate districts lost in the last three cycles, and it's possible candidates have just decided it's not worth it anymore.

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