Two Polls Show a Tight Race in Pennsylvania
By Kevin Brennan // October 16, 2012 | 6:00 a.m.
Once considered a safe bet for reelection, Sen. Bob Casey, D-Pa., now has a marginal edge over GOP nominee Tom Smith, according to a new Quinnipiac University poll released Tuesday.
Three weeks out from Election Day, Casey leads Smith, 48 percent to 45 percent, with 7 percent undecided. Casey's advantage is within the poll's margin of error.
Thanks to an aggressive television ad campaign, Smith has chipped away at Casey's lead over the past several months. In the previous poll, conducted late last month, Casey led Smith, 49 percent to 43 percent. In late July, Casey had an 18-point lead: 55 percent to 37 percent.
The presidential race has also tightened in the Keystone State. President Obama leads Mitt Romney, 50 percent to 46 percent, while 3 percent remain undecided. In the September poll, Obama led Romney, 54 percent to 42 percent.
The Quinnipiac survey mirrors a Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll released Monday. That survey showed Casey ahead of Smith, 41 percent to 39 percent, and Obama topping Romney, 49 percent to 45 percent.
A first-time candidate and former coal mining executive, Smith has invested millions of dollars of his own money into his Senate campaign. He announced Tuesday that he loaned his campaign another $10 million during the third quarter, leaving him with more than $7 million in his campaign account at the end of September.
Smith has significantly outpaced Casey in ad buys, although the senator has ramped up his spending in the last few weeks. Casey finished September with $5.2 million in the bank, after raising $1.5 million during the third quarter.
The race has received limited attention in the local and national press, due to a perception that Casey held a commanding lead over Smith. Casey and Smith agreed Friday to participate in one debate, which is scheduled for Oct. 26.
The Quinnipiac poll, conducted Oct. 12 through Oct. 14, surveyed 1,519 likely voters, for a margin of error of plus-or-minus 2.5 percentage points. The Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll surveyed 438 likely voters between Oct. 10 through Oct. 14. It has a margin of error of plus-or-minus 5 percentage points.
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